Penney shares fall as turnaround turns ugly

The market hates uncertainty, and JCP just delivered it in bulk.

By InvestorPlace May 16, 2012 10:05AM

Updated: 5:13 p.m. ET

 

By Dan Burrows


When Ron Johnson was the head of Apple's (AAPL) retail stores, he could do no wrong. Now that he's the CEO of J.C. Penney (JCP), it seems very little is going right.


Shares in the midpriced department store chain were down 19.7% Wednesday to $26.75 after the company coughed up a wad of bad news as part of its first-quarter earnings release late Tuesday.


Not only did Penney post a much wider loss than Wall Street was expecting, but it came up short on revenue, too. Margins, meanwhile, have now contracted for five consecutive quarters.


And if that weren't enough to send traders scurrying for the exits, management withdrew its annual guidance. Penney admitted that, nope, it won't hit its profit forecast of $1.59 a share in 2012. All bets are off.


And it gets even worse: In a signal that the company needs to conserve cash, Penney pulled its dividend, which was yielding a healthy 2.3% before the sell-off. By discontinuing the dividend, the company will save about $175 million a year, which Penney said it will plow into its turnaround.


Bottom line? Customers accustomed to bargain hunting don't much care for the changes the former Apple impresario has wrought.


For the most recent quarter, Penney posted a loss of 25 cents a share. Analysts, on average, were looking for a loss of 10 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters data. Sales dropped for the second quarter in a row, this time by 20% to $3.15 billion. Analysts were looking for sales of $3.41 billion, marking the fifth consecutive quarter in which Penney has punted top-line results.


"Sales and profitability have been tougher than anticipated during the first 13 weeks," Johnson said in a statement. No kidding. Sales at stores open at least a year, a key measure of a retailer's health, fell 18.9%.


Analysts were skeptical that Penney's plans to drop its usual parade of regular sales in favor of everyday low prices would confuse, anger and alienate customers -- and it looks like they were right. As Johnson said, Penney has "work to do to educate the customer on our pricing strategy."


The only thing that appears to be going right is the company's cost-cutting efforts, which are ahead of schedule.


"The company now expects savings to accelerate and exceed the run rate of approximately $900 million at the end of 2012, one year earlier than it had previously announced," Johnson said. Too bad you can't cut your way to growth.


Johnson has unleashed a wrenching, painful turnaround for the retailer -- one that is, to be fair, very much in its early stages. But whether Penney can lure traffic back to stores with a compelling value proposition on its wares is a huge question. It utterly failed to do so in the first quarter -- declining same-store sales, inventory write-downs and falling margins are ample evidence of that.


A while back, Johnson said to expect first-half earnings to be weak, with a rebound coming in the second half. But pulling the annual guidance throws even that into doubt. If this was his first report card, he's barely getting a passing grade, at least based on the market's reaction.


Getting a bead on Penney was tough enough heading into earnings -- Street estimates were all over the map. As Gilford Securities analyst Bernard Sosnick wrote to clients ahead of the report: "JCP is a guessing game about sales and earnings. It may be a day for 'Wow' or hoots of derision."


Well, it looks like the raspberries won and the guessing game has become only more opaque. The market hates uncertainty, and Penney just delivered it in bulk.


As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


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602Comments
May 16, 2012 1:23PM
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I loved the idea Penneys had for dropping the sales and pricing everything affordably year round not only because it would make my shopping easier to not have to hunt for bargains but hopefully it would cut down on the paper ads I receive every week.   Hopefully they can pull this off and get back to making profits soon. 
May 16, 2012 1:21PM
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Since I only shop sales, and JCP no longer has sales, I no longer shop there. It's a very simple concept, but apparently too difficult for the new CEO to understand.  If they don't change back to the way it was, they're toast! 
May 16, 2012 1:19PM
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I love their new price system.  It takes all the percentage math out of shopping.  Plus their prices are great
May 16, 2012 1:17PM
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I've been to JCPenney recently, it's nothing but overpriced graphic tees. The only halfway decent things they have are $7 tank tops and that's not saying much. JCPenney used to be one of my favorite places to shop.
May 16, 2012 1:16PM
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I hate the new setup, dont like new pricing system, PENNEY~S you stink.

May 16, 2012 1:13PM
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I have been in there 4 times since they have changed their pricing strategy.  3 out of the 4 times, the check out lines have been LONG.  One of those times, I hung my merchandise back up and left.  Also, their credit card is very confusing to me - the rewards one.  I have it, and I never know if I'm getting a reward or not, for that month.  Some months I spend $50 and I get one, others I spend closer to $100 and don't.  Confusing as hell.

May 16, 2012 1:10PM
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Yeah, don't like their current in-paper ads---they are just confusing to me. Not sure which are the "sale" days....something like every 3rd _______day of the month????!!! Just confusing, so I haven't bothered to even go to a store since it switched.

I LOVED Penney's sales before.  In my opinion, Penney's ORIGINAL prices were always too high, but with sales and additional percent off coupons, the final price I paid was always a good deal---compared to any store!

Why did they change???!!!

May 16, 2012 1:08PM
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jcp has now become the new walmart of the department store world now surpassing sears.
May 16, 2012 1:04PM
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cut costs and fire the ceo johnson, he stinks the old penney's was alot better.
May 16, 2012 12:59PM
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It's kind of fitting that the JCP here closed and immediately Shopper's World moved in.  
May 16, 2012 12:47PM
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Hate their new no sale pricing. I don't even open their ad e-mails anymore. As far as cost cutting ,they now have cheap sh-t just like Wal Mart. Penny's and Sears haven't learned you can't lower quality and service and keep your customer base. They will both be out of business within five years.
May 16, 2012 12:28PM
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The "new" Penney's is terrible.  It looks like Target and charges like Macy's. 

May 16, 2012 12:18PM
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Who didn't see this one coming....?!!! Of course JCP is losing money. They've tried the same sales model as Saturn. We see how that worked out. People truly want to feel as though they're getting the best price whether they really are or not. Fixed pricing doesn't work for non luxury items.

 

Coupons, sale flyers and haggling historically works. Unfortunately, JCP did what Coke did....Coke was smart enough to do a 180 back to their regular formula....

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