3 stocks for good times and bad
Nothing is recession-proof, but these shares are pretty close.
By Jonathan Berr
These are confusing economic times, which makes picking stocks especially hard.
One week, investors were stung by disappointing jobs reports. Then came news that consumer confidence rose for a third straight week. Billionaire Warren Buffett, perhaps the greatest investor in history, recently said that the odds of the U.S. entering a recession were low. Not surprisingly, economist Nouriel Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom," sees trouble ahead for the U.S. because of the persistent problems in Europe, among other reasons.
Though every company benefits when times are good, a select few have a broad array of products and services that appeal to both budget-conscious consumers and those with more cash to spend. That doesn't make these companies "recession-proof" -- whatever than means -- but it does enable them to sustain themselves during economic downturns better than others.
Here, in alphabetical order, are a few examples of stocks I'm talking about:
- YTD: +6.51% (as of 6/8)
- Price Target: $87.65
- 6/8 Close: $88.74
Warehouse retailer Costco (COST) beat Wall Street expectations in its most recent quarter, while new member sign-ups jumped 9% and renewal rates remained strong. The chain has something to offer all types of consumers.
If you have the space, Costco will sell you a large enough quantity of whatever you want, and at a price to make it worth your while economically. Nonperishable items, such toilet paper, are especially good deals. The company's Kirkland brand products offer good value for your money. Grocery stores are unable to compete with Costco on price.
For customers in a buying mood, Costco offers great deals on a wide variety of big-ticket items ranging from home appliances to caskets. It also provides travel services, assists with car buying and sells window treatments. Many small businesses, such as mom-and-pop restaurants, shop at the chain as well, a fact that may not be adequately reflected in its stock price.
- YTD: +24.5% (as of 6/8)
- Price Target: $54.57
- 6/8 Close: $52.35
Unusually warm weather boosted the Atlanta-based retailer's earnings in the first quarter, but Wall Street doesn't expect a chill to set in anytime soon. Home Depot (HD) recently announced plans to raise its stock buyback program by $500 million, to $4 billion total, and reaffirmed its 2012 earnings guidance.
When times are good, consumers are more apt to hire contractors that frequent Home Depot for projects such as a new deck that may have been delayed during the Great Recession. The chain even finances projects and offers installation services.
Cash-strapped consumers will go to Home Depot for tools and supplies to do simple repairs and projects around the home that might enhance resale value, such as planting flowers or painting.
Procter & Gamble
- YTD: -5.94% (as of 6/8)
- Price Target: $71.12
- 6/8 Close: $62.75
All the hopes and fears of investors are reflected in the shares of the largest consumer-products company.
Procter & Gamble (PG), which earlier this year announced a restructuring plan that called for the elimination of 5,000 jobs, has struggled recently. In April, the Cincinnati company reduced its profit outlook for the year, citing rising commodity costs among other factors.
Times are getting better. Commodity prices have dropped since then, and oil recently hit an eight-month low. Consumer confidence, which fell to a five-month low in May, may rebound if gas prices continue to remain low and the situation in Europe doesn't veer out of control.
However, P&G has such a wide variety of brands that it's in a unique position to capture spending from budget-conscious consumers (Gain laundry detergent, Ivory skin care) to those more flush with cash (Tide, Aussie-style shampoo).
As of this writing, Jonathan Berr did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Follow him on Twitter @jdberr.
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The company has made at least 4 acquisitions in the space, and few people have paid any attention.
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