Market gains are just beginning

A better-than-expected deal out of the eagerly awaited eurozone summit has kicked off what could become a long rally.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Jun 29, 2012 1:05PM

Finally, Germany cedes a little, and markets go crazy. European leaders agreed to take steps toward closer budgetary controls and tighter political union. Moreover, in a victory for Europe's Latin Bloc, German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened to using bailout funds to directly recapitalize banks and to purchase sovereign bonds in the open market.

 

This is huge step forward, and markets are responding accordingly. By all indications, the gains are just getting started ahead of what could be a multimonth advance before worries over America's "fiscal cliff" -- tax hikes and spending cuts worth about 5% of GDP due to hit in early 2013 -- cause new weakness. Here's how to play it.

 

 

As I previewed in my column this week, Merkel realized that her constant recalcitrance against any fresh steps to ease the eurozone crisis (moves toward liability sharing via Eurobonds or a banking union) was quickly spiraling out of control. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs were reaching unsustainable levels. And political cohesion was beginning to fray, with Spanish and Italian leaders threatening to veto a new $150 billion growth package if there was a lack of progress on these issues.

 

So the outcome from the summit -- which was the 19th meeting in two years -- was very, very good. This follows a good outcome from the Greek election and fresh stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (relaxation of collateral requirements).

 

With investor sentiment so negative heading into this meeting, people have been taken by surprise. Friday's market action demonstrated this with huge, gapped moves higher in key assets. Small caps. Emerging-market stocks. Crude oil. Copper. Precious metals. They all moved by leaps and bounds.

 

 

Technically, it's all systems go for a fast-moving rally led by foreign stocks, financial issues and commodities. Breadth has been improving steadily as more and more stocks participate in the upside while fewer and fewer participate in the declines. Deflationary expectations are easing in the bond market, which is a good thing that will suck money out of Treasury bonds and put it into stocks and gold.

 

And the dollar -- on which so much of the market moves, as computer-trading algorithms use the euro-dollar exchange rate as a measure of risk appetites -- got absolutely pummeled, resulting in a cascade of short-euro, long-dollar trade covering. For the bears, it's a terrible day.

 

I'm looking for this advance to continue into August as eurozone progress and central bank stimulus fuel another ride higher, as I discussed in my column last week

 
Trading update

The leveraged ETF positions in the Edge Letter Sample Portfolio were well positioned for Friday's rise. Both the Direxion 3x Emerging Markets (EDC) and the Direxion 3x Semiconductor Bull (SOXL) are posting 10% gains. New position Synovus Financial (SNV) is also doing well, up 6% since I added it on Wednesday.

 

I'm adding two new positions to my portfolio, European lender Banco Santander (SAN) and Indian metals miner Sterlite Industries (SLT).

 

I found both SAN and SLT with the help of technical screens developed with Fidelity's Wealth Lab Pro back-testing tools, which you can find here. (Fidelity sponsors the Investor Pro section on MSN Money.)

 


Check out Anthony's investment advisory service The Edge. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click here to sign up. Contact Anthony at anthony@edgeletter.c​om and follow him on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.

87Comments
Jul 8, 2012 4:20PM
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It's ridiculous when Germany decides to do something and then all of a sudden the markets are going to be fine. This world economy bologna is getting old. It's pretty bad when one nation out of the EU can determine the fate of the United States stock market. We need to change how we do business so hard working Americans stop loosing their savings because other countries continue to have problems. Remember the days when that didn't matter!!! I still don't believe that we have to continue to be that involved with other countries to conduct business.
Jul 5, 2012 7:44AM
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I don't believe any one person when it comes to picking stocks.  I want to thoroughly understand a stock before I buy.  I want complete visibility.  I want to be able to kick tires.  I believe in hunches.  A hunch causes me to be curious and curiosity causes me to do research and then if the company passes muster I will buy.  
Jul 4, 2012 10:43AM
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Tony - WOW you really "turn on a dime".... I do like your columns but we are in a bear market and while there may be rapid upturns along the way, the overall trend is sideways to down.  Quit "flip flopping: so much and you will be fine.
Jul 3, 2012 1:07AM
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There has been hereby a certain number of frustated, annoyed and annoying posts about Anthony and his "flip-flopping" predictions.

 

First, Anthony is NOT a loser. His Edge Letter Portfolio had a return in June of +12% while the S&P500 did +4% only. Also the "Explore Part" (60% of Total Capital) did +18%. That is impressive.

 

Second, Anthony is an EDUCATED, SMART, and experienced guy, who has access and understands a broad range of surveys, polls, analysis ... and provide you FOR FREE his interpretations, analysis and recommendations in his Edge Letter Sample Portfolio. So he should have your respect for that. Disgruntled people are free to ignore Anthony's articles and vent their bile somewhere else.

 

As for his "flip-flopping", it can be seen as a manifestation of his intelligence, that is often defined as the ability to adapt to changing environments and circumstances. It is the market that flip-flops all the time. Anthony is acutely tuned to its changing trends and goes into details to document his technical analysis. How many other guys do that, for you, for free ? Most other guys would say "My guts tell me ....".

Who would you rather believe and look at ?

 

Be aware of which time horizon is refered to when you read his articles. A sector or stock may have a short term (a few weeks or less) uptrend, while its medium term (a few months) trend is downward, while its long term (years) trend is upward ... or vice versa,  and to crown it all, the events that change those trends are more or less (un)predictable. So mind the time horizon. I like Anthony''s strategy to follow the short term trend closely while looking also longer term (but the longer the term, the more unpredictable it is, right?). His sale/buy recommendations last typically only a few weeks.

 

So give the guy a break ! and don't forget .. he is a winner.  Don't be a whiner.

Jul 2, 2012 10:41AM
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There are no "experts" on the economy but rather people who think they are but in reality they are nothing more than people with an opinion so I guess everyone is an expert.  Since that qualifies me as an "expert" my gut tells me that this market is nothing more than hyped up and artificially supported by printed money and it looks like Europe is going to follow America's lead to get their shipped righted.  The reality is...all of this printed up money will eventually come back to haunt us but those in control just want to get thru this election.  Companies are not creating anywhere near enough good paying jobs here in America and our unemployment rate will continue to climb of which will be falsely reported due to not taking into consideration those who are no longer elgible to collect benefits so they essentially drop off.  Gas prices may have come down but check out other consumer good such as groceries, clothing etc. and they are up over 40% from a year ago.  Consumer sentiment is way down again those in control will tell you likewise to give the illusion all is well.  Bottom line..judge for yourself by looking around where you live and that will tell you if housing is stabilizing, jobs are being created etc. as you are the "expert" and not some overpaid financial reporter. There are many more viable options to invest money these days and the stock market in my "opinion" is not one of them. The choice is yours...
Jul 2, 2012 7:41AM
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YEA KNOW, ITS BECOME A TOSS UP AS TO WITCH ONE OF YOU MORONS IS IS THE WORST AT THIS. YOU OR CRAMER?? THE GOOD NEWS IS IF I DO THE OPPOSITE OF WHATEVER YOU TWO IDIOTS SAY I MAKE MONEY!!!

Jul 2, 2012 6:20AM
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Is this guy ever right? ... seriously! ... my whole strategy is doing the opposite of whatever he predicts ... by the time he changes his mind, the market is already headed in the other direction ... hillarious ... how is this loser still allowed to print his rambling BS?
Jul 1, 2012 7:24AM
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Tony... you added a European lender to your portfolio? Banco Santander...

 

Isn't that like handing Europe a dollar and getting 79 cents in miscellaneous change, some coins not even being real, and being excited about it?

 

They can bail banks until the cows come home (from partying on your dollar) but without job recovery how c****nding bank lend? Valuation must be part of your equation. Extending money is just phony baloney if the borrower isn't working and because so many are NOT, collateral values keep sinking. The truth is, until we see valid job recovery, the only good bank has been closed, reconciled, current personnel let go and replaced by former (job recovery), and regulated with specific oversight. You could have donated that cash to your local small businesses in an effort to recover where you live from Wal-Mart dominance, and made a better return in many ways! 

Jun 30, 2012 11:09PM
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This guy'Mirhadi'keep flip flapping'one day he says market will crash and day after he changes his mind'i keep looking his article'and he can not make up his mind'either he wants Decafinated or Reguler.b
Jun 30, 2012 10:53PM
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Message to all eternal doom & gloomists:

 

The bulls are back town....

The bulls are back, the bulls are back.

The bulls are back in toooo-ooo-oooo--ooown.

Yeah the bulls are back, the bulls are back.

 

 

Jun 30, 2012 8:45PM
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It's not a rally, Tony. We entered a phase of over-printed money that will haunt us forever. There is too much unit currency outstanding, none flowing through the economy (so there isn't one), too much debt that has nothing to do with the economy and a global condition that literally clones ours. Like Andrew Dickson White pointed out in: Fiat Money Inflation in France... after a while, the Main Street economy dies, while stockjobbers (his word) inflate fake markets and count debt as profit as to not illuminate the fact that [banks] are fully detached and everyone else exists in a sub-economic condition.

 

I certainly wouldn't invest where I was last in line to recoop if something (and it will) went wrong. Are there any companies hiring back their OLD workforce? If not, they would be hiring ignorance on purpose. When 100% of all publicly traded companies are engaged in the exact same culture and survival mechanism... time to slip out the back door and find a safeharbor.

Jun 30, 2012 8:01PM
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Put a gun to anyone's head and there will be compromise. But if your really think the German people are going to be the new patsy, you are very wrong. This will unravel before it kicks in about  January 2013.  There needs to be a way out of debt. Got that?  Let me say that again in case you do not understand. There must be a way out of debt, not simply by recapitalization of banks directly.  They really need austerity. Not as much as was proposed earlier, but this is no solution.  Sure, the markets will respond positively. Sure the politicians are sleeping better. But this plan is worthless in the long run. It merely stall's the eventual outcome; investors will never see their money again. It's just going to take a little longer for them to realize this glaring fact. No one wants to break the news to them and of course, hope springs eternal. And that's when they'll see their principal again,...in eternity.
Jun 30, 2012 5:48PM
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yea the markets are getting pumped up to rip everyone off again...fool who don't see this deception,, What Obama needs more trillions from our home equities, our 401K,, They build you people up like puppets, lambs to the slaughter again...fools
Jun 30, 2012 5:30PM
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wow! I haven't heard that before, ur kiddin??? yea, right, rally, overwhelmings losses, rally!!! more losses, another rally!!!! euro bailout, rally!!!! oh please!!! next week it's gonna be another rally, except down again!!

Jun 30, 2012 2:07PM
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Quote:

“So the outcome from the summit -- which was the 19th meeting in two years -- was very, very good.”

 

How many times in the recent past have the media declared that Europe’s problems were finally being addressed, only to find out later that minimal or zero real progress had been made?  And then there's the fact that Europe is still trying to make socialism work, and the fact that bailing out socialists just kicks the can down the road to an even bigger economic disaster.  And just look how well the Federal Reserve’s manipulations of the American economy have worked!

 

It won’t be surprising if the market drops a few hundred points next week, and continues its zig-zag pattern of euphoria over Europe one day then gloom over Europe the next.

 

The 19th meeting in two years?!  Gimme a break.  A year from now they'll be on their 28th meeting in three years.  Europe is the same socialist dump today as it was yesterday.

Jun 30, 2012 12:55PM
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OMG!  Tony!  Why would you jinx us!  You KNOW whatever you say, the market does the opposite!  Now i'VE GOT TO SELL EVERYTHING!  Thanks alot!
Jun 30, 2012 10:10AM
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It was just a week ago that this guy was saying the market "is in it's last gasp". 
Jun 30, 2012 9:26AM
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There are some of us to old to find jobs who day trade the market in order to pay our bills.  If you know what you're doing, you can make enough to live comfortably.  Those who post on these sites damning the market and wall street, would not do so if you learned how to day trade and hedge. It is possible to make several hundred dollars a day.
Jun 30, 2012 9:00AM
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well if this guy is right then expect prices at the pump to sky rocket also...  the market and oil go hand in hand... remember that. 
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