Market gains are just beginning

A better-than-expected deal out of the eagerly awaited eurozone summit has kicked off what could become a long rally.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Jun 29, 2012 1:05PM

Finally, Germany cedes a little, and markets go crazy. European leaders agreed to take steps toward closer budgetary controls and tighter political union. Moreover, in a victory for Europe's Latin Bloc, German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened to using bailout funds to directly recapitalize banks and to purchase sovereign bonds in the open market.

 

This is huge step forward, and markets are responding accordingly. By all indications, the gains are just getting started ahead of what could be a multimonth advance before worries over America's "fiscal cliff" -- tax hikes and spending cuts worth about 5% of GDP due to hit in early 2013 -- cause new weakness. Here's how to play it.

 

 

As I previewed in my column this week, Merkel realized that her constant recalcitrance against any fresh steps to ease the eurozone crisis (moves toward liability sharing via Eurobonds or a banking union) was quickly spiraling out of control. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs were reaching unsustainable levels. And political cohesion was beginning to fray, with Spanish and Italian leaders threatening to veto a new $150 billion growth package if there was a lack of progress on these issues.

 

So the outcome from the summit -- which was the 19th meeting in two years -- was very, very good. This follows a good outcome from the Greek election and fresh stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (relaxation of collateral requirements).

 

With investor sentiment so negative heading into this meeting, people have been taken by surprise. Friday's market action demonstrated this with huge, gapped moves higher in key assets. Small caps. Emerging-market stocks. Crude oil. Copper. Precious metals. They all moved by leaps and bounds.

 

 

Technically, it's all systems go for a fast-moving rally led by foreign stocks, financial issues and commodities. Breadth has been improving steadily as more and more stocks participate in the upside while fewer and fewer participate in the declines. Deflationary expectations are easing in the bond market, which is a good thing that will suck money out of Treasury bonds and put it into stocks and gold.

 

And the dollar -- on which so much of the market moves, as computer-trading algorithms use the euro-dollar exchange rate as a measure of risk appetites -- got absolutely pummeled, resulting in a cascade of short-euro, long-dollar trade covering. For the bears, it's a terrible day.

 

I'm looking for this advance to continue into August as eurozone progress and central bank stimulus fuel another ride higher, as I discussed in my column last week

 
Trading update

The leveraged ETF positions in the Edge Letter Sample Portfolio were well positioned for Friday's rise. Both the Direxion 3x Emerging Markets (EDC) and the Direxion 3x Semiconductor Bull (SOXL) are posting 10% gains. New position Synovus Financial (SNV) is also doing well, up 6% since I added it on Wednesday.

 

I'm adding two new positions to my portfolio, European lender Banco Santander (SAN) and Indian metals miner Sterlite Industries (SLT).

 

I found both SAN and SLT with the help of technical screens developed with Fidelity's Wealth Lab Pro back-testing tools, which you can find here. (Fidelity sponsors the Investor Pro section on MSN Money.)

 


Check out Anthony's investment advisory service The Edge. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click here to sign up. Contact Anthony at anthony@edgeletter.c​om and follow him on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.

87Comments
Jun 29, 2012 6:10PM
Jun 29, 2012 5:51PM
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I wish the so called governments (world wide) and policital ****'s would stop screwing around with people and the very hard earned money that they worked so hard for to have a decent life in retirement....SHAME ON ALL YOU NASTY HUMAN BEINGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jun 29, 2012 5:45PM
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Many companies have already warned that second quarter profits will be considerably lower than the first. That is not a good omen. What will that do to the impending market rally?

Jun 29, 2012 5:34PM
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Europe and Americas debt crisis - either pay down the debt or bankruptcy. This political and economic maneuvering is just lying to ourselves. Why people believe in fairy tales is beyond me.
Jun 29, 2012 5:27PM
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I don't know who's a bigger idiot..me for not reading more than this headline or the author trying to explain it.
Jun 29, 2012 5:22PM
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What Wall Street reads form the agreements in Europe is the ECB printing Euros in order to bail out Spanish banks. Just as they expect more money printing frm the Fed. The printing presses will crank up, but they will have to be turned off eventually. At that point the markets will crash. The only question is the timing.
Jun 29, 2012 5:18PM
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I expect the markets to be down on Monday due to profit taking & a new crisis in Europe. The roller coaster ride will continue for a long time.
Jun 29, 2012 5:12PM
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With all the rhetoric about Obama Care the market should be tanking.
Jun 29, 2012 5:09PM
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Mirhaydari is obviously well-informed, but he's no different than any other investor who takes current events and projects them out indefinitely. Things have looked bad for a couple quarters, so he's been all gloom and doom lately. But now we've got a bit of good news and all of a sudden we're set for a long rally. This is why most of what comes out of the press isn't very useful. What I'd like to see these sites do is provide useful analysis of the long-term, not take short-term data and make worthless predictions based on them.Real investors are interested in a lot more than what might happen through August. That sort of information is only of interest to market timers, who usually end up getting their butts whipped.
Jun 29, 2012 5:08PM
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I think it's safe to assume Wall Street is just like the banks and the auto industry in this country, it's too big to fail. Thats why you will always see it around no matter what lies they feed you as to why it's up or down. I will sleep better tonight though knowing that the financial crisis in Europe is solved, whew big relief.   Sure am finding it harder and harder to put my faith in ANYTHING these day's.
Jun 29, 2012 5:04PM
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Complicated sh!t like this cannot sustain itself indefinitely. Eventually, people - investors - migrate to what they know and understand, like staples, commodities, and cash.

 

One day's rally does not change any of this.

Jun 29, 2012 4:52PM
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"Market gains are just beginning"       Suuuuuuuuuuure they are.  ;)    
Jun 29, 2012 4:51PM
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Obama is holding the marketd oown. with his policies.
Jun 29, 2012 4:39PM
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@DallasNE: The market is a "She?" Can you say "creep show?" Yew. Get a cow, man.
Jun 29, 2012 4:31PM
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Merkel is allowing some baby steps here. With the reaction to even these small steps perhaps she will now be able to try some more bold action. Not sure how she explains away her failed austerity plan but maybe if we just don't talk about it for awhile she will end up doing the correct think. At least we can hope. Monday could be an interesting day following a weekend to digest what happened today. My guess is that it will start out with some profit taking followed by a rally -- but I'm not banking on it -- too many moving parts to see them all clearly.
Jun 29, 2012 4:27PM
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yes, i agree;  it's mostly lies and p.r., intended to buy time for politicos

wanting to stay in office.  the "preserve the euro" philosophy is insane,

mostly because it rewards fiscal mismanagement and squandered

assets by robber-nations....and those who created these monumental

deficits should be made to suffer the consequences.  instead, they are

being given billions, which only reinforces the irresponsible behavior.

better to starve it out.  this news is about something that is a micro-blip

in a macro-downspiral, something to postpone the ultimate collapse

of nations' economies.

Jun 29, 2012 4:24PM
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It's funny how many people cry foul about the stock market, but then they turn around and put money right back in...if everyone would just stop giving these scam artists called brokers their money we would all be better off. STOP putting money in the market. It is proven it is rigged and the investors are the only ones making money off bonuses. Just look at the Barclay bank insider trading incident. They admitted fault and received no punishment. They admitted to price colluding and fixing. It's a scam...GET OUT of the market.
Jun 29, 2012 4:13PM
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Our government, justice department, stock market....Eric Holder.

Corruption is the rule rather than the exception.  Thank you Mr. President.


Jun 29, 2012 4:12PM
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Good god...........everybody knows stocks are way, way, way overpriced right now, except maybe the idiots that had to pump trillions of dollars in to make this market rise 200 points.

 

The EU can do all the money laundering they want and things won't get any better.  And, the dumbocrats can pass all the tax and spend legislation they want and things won't get any better.

 

Millions upon Millions of unemployed people all over the world and no healthcare law or EU bailout is going to fix the problem!

Jun 29, 2012 4:12PM
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I agree with this article. 

 

The Euro debt can is now officially kicked down the road.  Private construction, both commercial and residential, are at cyclic low peaks and finaly starting to improve.  (which is has the best correlation to unemployment, IMHO).  PE ratios are at 20 year lows.  Earnings are up despite current depressed conditions, so they've figured out how to be more efficient.  (What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, I guess.)

 

Get ready.  The formula for a strong upswing is perfect. 

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