Another day, another bogus Armageddon
We're better off than we were 3 years ago, though it may not feel like it.
Jeez, these Armageddons seem like a dime a dozen. And that's the real problem: Armageddons aren't sold a dozen by the dime. They are sold very rarely. We should know it -- we lived through one just a couple short years ago.
Here's the problem, though. We have learned the wrong lesson. We have learned that every single crisis is the paramount crisis. That every single woe is the death rattle. That the sky not only falls but falls hard and takes all of us chickens with it.
Here's what we should have learned. You can almost blow up the western financial world. You can almost nationalize every single bank. You can almost destroy capitalism. We almost did. We can scorn Bernanke and Geithner and criticize them for 9% unemployment. But I think we should have and could have had 25% unemployment. I think we could have had a depression.
What's happening now is not equal to what happened then. Sure, stocks are higher. But don't tell me that a potential Italian bond restructuring -- which I don't think will happen -- is as bad as the collapse of the U.S. financial system. Don't tell me that 5% or even 6% bond yields in Italy could be our funeral. As a broker, I sold 14% Treasurys 30 years ago, and that was supposed to be the end of the world.
I am suspicious of the end-of-the-worlders here. Their rap is too convenient. I see this one as "OK, we beat Greece. Now let's go after Italy with short positions, with credit default swaps, with everything we can, because we have to make our quarters." That's hedge fund speak for "Look, we can't take down companies, but that doesn't mean we can't take down indebted countries."
I say sure, go ahead. But if you think you can send this market down even 10% from here on Italy and a possible budget talk breakdown, I say give it your best shot.
We're better than we were three years ago.
It's just that after a day like Monday, you don't feel it.
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LOL... Repeat a lie often enough and the minions may start to believe it...
What i don't much like about Jim Cramer'a attitude is that you can't just shrug off a multiple rocket attack and that's what the market has. Just a few of the concerns are
1. The flat US job market from last week's figures.
2. High Chinese inflation means they won't power the world economy upwards anymore on stimulus steriods, indeed the reverse.
3. The gathering contagion of Euro sovereign debt rolling from country to country as the original three search for more money and now bigger economies look shaky while Europe for the first time actually considers the first, a Greek default which will really hurt
German and French banks. The Eurozone just can't handle all this debt, much of it generated by bailing the banks out in the first place. Just look at Ireland for instance, today's latest downgrade. Their banks have recieved massive amounts from the government of this small country.
4. The budget impasse in the US. At a time of neccesity the Republicans say you can't tax wealth creation further. Well somone has to pay taxes and it can't be the unemployed so it should be corporate America with their 2 Trillion on the sidelines. They or the economy they take their money from were bailed out. Well now it's time to pay the bill! This is not radical or socialist, but instead good house keeping and common sense
The world is interconnected as never before and so wherever you see these problems in aggregate they matter a lot.
When banks were bailed out the debt went to government and now we're seeing the consequences all over the world. We just kicked the can down the road, we the people who bailed out the banks through our governments have recieved a modest benefit of avoiding an even worse recession but many of the surviving banks have done very nicely thank you. Well not now as all the above chickens come home to roost in the form of developed world dangerously high levels of government debt.
This is a real not a fake problem and has been rolling around the markets for a year now and there are no easy solutions out there.
Yes, I agree we could had a depression, 25% unemployment but we would be rebooted back and then be better off then a "false profit"........Obama needs to go! If not we won't reboot. Face it, are we getting better with Obama, I think, NOT......
in the capitalist mind it is dog eat dog competition that is great.....until you are the dog being eaten ...............then you want government regulation.........
don't believe me? just listen to the people whine about the price of gas and cry to have the capitalist gougers put in jail
So do many others, however, P&G's market in NA and the EU is saturated = no growth!!!!!! Only hope is for the 3rd world to pony up. 2/3rd's of this planet make less than $500 USD per YEAR... where is the growth......good luck! BTW most of your P&G products can be replaced with simple household cleaners that have been around for years and cost $1-2 USD. Unless ur digging ditches or cutting grass for a living that expensive Tide u use is overkill. All about marketing, perfumes and enzymes added for that "better clean". Dawn pollutes the environment with Triclosan, Cascade only cleaned dishes better with phosphates, the list goes on. If u feel better while paying a premium for products that are over priced more power to ya!!!!!!!1
I am a P&Ger and if u think 5 years of flat growth (55-65) is going to let u retire wealthy, ur sick. Sure the divs are great ...we at P&G don't pay for much of what is dumped into our retirement funds for years service,however, ask the guys in the early 1990's at 50 yo with 30 years in bailed with the stock at $85 how their retirement years were spent........Getting another JOB in most cases to cover the losses.
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