Many investors had incorrectly assumed RIMM was the perfect technology bargain when the stock started to fall. What happened instead was the stock just kept falling, to a level where the downside momentum got worse. RIMM has crashed from $68.35 on Feb. 12, 2011, to a low of $7.26 on July 13, 2012.

Meanwhile, Avon's stock has tumbled from $35.41 on Oct. 13, 2010, to a low of $15.24 on July 13, 2012. Some optimists think Avon may have hit bottom and is possibly now a great bargain.

But a number of investment pros don't agree, including S&P Capital IQ, which has downgraded Avon to "sell" from "hold."

"On a multiple analysis, we cut our target price to $14 a share from $21," says Esther Kwon, an S&P analyst who has reduced her 2013 estimated earnings by 11 cents a share, to $1.10. One of her concerns is the continuing global economic weakness and lower growth prospects in Avon's largest market, Brazil. According to Kwon, its biggest competitor there has been reinvigorated after making significant investments last year. She sees an increased risk of a dividend cut in 2013.

In hindsight, Avon should have accepted Coty's unsolicited offer to acquire the company for $23.35 a share in April. Avon's stock has dropped significantly since it rejected the offer.

Avon's problems with government regulators are also a concern. The SEC review of a potential violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and a subpoena from the agency in connection with Regulation Fair Disclosure are complicating efforts by Avon's new management to turn the business around and "acting as an overhang on the shares,"  Kwon says.

She estimates Avon will earn 83 cents a share in 2012, well below last year's $1.63, excluding restructuring and other one-time charges. With such depressed earnings, its yearly dividend of 92 cents a share may not be sustainable, since the projected 2012 per-share earnings are much less than the payout.

Avon has operations in 65 countries, and its products are distributed in 42 other countries. Latin America accounted for 45% of sales and the U.S. about 19%. Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa combined generated 14% of total sales, while the Asia-Pacific accounted for 8%.

In an effort to cut overall costs and adjust to lower demand for its beauty, fashion and home products, Avon has reduced the number of its sales representatives worldwide. The number in the Asia-Pacific has been reduced by 11%, North America by 8% and in Western Europe, the Middle East Africa by 2%. Only Latin America got a boost, with a 3% increase.

Avon has been trying to rejuvenate worldwide sales since 2005, when it started a restructuring program focused on revamping its global chain operations, streamlining various parts of its operations and cutting overall operating costs. The massive effort hasn't succeeded in achieving its goals, however, with total sales remaining sluggish, ranging  from $8.9 billion in 2007 to $120.8 billion in 2010. Sales did increase in 2011, to $11.2 billion, but S&P estimates that sales will inch up only to $11.5 billion in 2012.

"Although sales were strong in the Latin America and Western Europe, Middle East and Africa regions at the beginning of 2011, they slowed dramatically in the second half of the year, and we expect sales to continue to struggle in 2012," Kwon says. With the challenging comparisons in the first half and recent slowdown in sales momentum, Kwon assumes operating margins narrowed in the first half of 2012.

The analyst sees sales in the U.S. rising by just 1% in 2012, and China won't be much help either. Kwon says China appears to be having difficulty transitioning from beauty boutiques to the now permitted direct-sales marketing system.

Is it too late to short or sell the stock now that it has fallen so much already? Maybe, since the stock is already close to S&P's reduced price target of $14 a share. But it surely isn't a buy right here, unless you know something the pros don't -- like Coty coming back at this depressed price to relaunch a takeover bid.

Gene Marcial wrote the column "Inside Wall Street" for Business Week for 28 years and now writes for MSN Money's Top Stocks. He also wrote the book "Seven Commandments of Stock Investing," published by FT Press.