DuPont wrestles with projections

The company has moved beyond its chemical past to become a diverse owner of high-growth businesses.

By Jim J. Jubak Dec 21, 2011 1:17AM
You’re entitled to feel whiplashed by DuPont (DD) over the past week or so.

First, on Dec. 9, DuPont announced that fourth-quarter earnings would come in at 28 cents to 36 cents a share, well below the Wall Street consensus of 46 cents a share. The problem, the company said, is that customers are cutting back on orders on fears of a global economic slowdown, preferring to draw down inventories rather than risk getting caught with raw materials they don’t need. 

The problem has been spread across DuPont’s businesses in plastics, autos, general packaging, homebuilding and electronics. Europe, no surprise, is the weakest region.

Second, at the company’s Dec. 13 investor day, DuPont said, in effect, that Wall Street had overreacted by cutting projections for full-year 2011 earnings to $4.23 after the negative pre-announcement. For 2011, the company projected earnings of $4.20 to $4.40 a share. Cost cutting and synergies from the acquisition of Danisco -- $300 million and $130 million, respectively -- are materializing sooner than expected.

Although the businesses the company mentioned in the Dec. 9 pre-announcement are indeed slowing, growth is more than holding up at the fast-growth industrial biosciences and nutrition and health segments. DuPont said it expected long-term annual earnings growth of 12% (at the high end of company guidance of 10% to 13% annual growth) on long-term sales growth of 8% to 10% in agriculture, 10% to 12% in industrial biosciences, and 7% to 9% in nutrition and health.

What is DuPont really telling investors? That the long-term picture for growth remains extremely promising but that projecting near-term growth is very, very difficult. I don’t think DuPont is alone in wrestling with that problem.

If DuPont were the old cyclical commodity chemical company of even 10 years ago, I’d say the risk of a deeper-than-expected economic downturn was sufficient to turn this into a sell. But DuPont has become a collection of high-growth business such as its seeds, nutrition, industrial biosciences, and performance chemicals units that, absent a really severe downturn, will continue to generate solid growth of 10% or more. (The company’s performance coatings business -- its old auto coatings business -- on the other hand remains decidedly cyclical. Growth there will be more like 3% to 5% over the long term.)

The shares are down roughly 8.5% from where I bought them on Nov. 2 for my 12-18 month Jubak’s Picks portfolio. I think the shares will be a good performer in the second half of 2012 and with their 3.7% yield I’m going to hold until then -- unless the economic picture darkens even more than expected.

I am cutting my target price to $58 a share from my previous target of $65 by November in recognition of the increasing evidence of a recession in Europe in 2012.

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did own shares of DuPont as of the end of September. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here. 


Tags: DD
1Comment
Dec 21, 2011 1:06PM
avatar

Maybe.

 

The 10year chart looks horrendous though. If they've truly become a different company, maybe they can get out of the long term no growth stock price they've had.

 

In the short term, it made a hugely bearish head and shoulders top. A triple, around 56-57 dollars. It hit it 3 times and could not come thru. Even worse it lost 200 day cieling level in exchange for now having a possible cieling at the 50 day MA.

 

The only real hard resistance line is at 34 from a double bottom in June 2010, and hard bottom multiple times at 31/32 from August 2009 thru Febr 2010. Not to mentioned the price channel is severe to the downside on the lower low side this year. 3 successive lower lows where the bottom line is more severely down than the top line lower highs.

 

I'd say you can get a much better entry point over the next few months. It's at $45 now, I'd actually expect it to drop into the mid 30s next year.

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