Nuclear energy is dead
The disaster in Japan likely means the end of nuclear energy, in the US and abroad, and a greater reliance on natural gas.
With the nuclear-powered reactors in Japan still smoldering, it's not easy to know what to do. It is easier to pretend to know what to do or to take a blind stab. Or just to cash out. As easy as it was 25 years ago when Chernobyl exploded.
When that happened, the world panicked. All sorts of disaster scenarios existed, in part because of the amazing lack of information coming out of the Soviet Union and the radically escalated levels of radiation showing up in Sweden, which triggered the first word of the accident.
The lack of knowledge directly affected subsequent trading. Food and restaurant stocks were hit especially hard because people thought Chernobyl was uncontainable and no one would be able to eat anything but canned food until the radiation cloud dispersed. Yes, it was that scary.
This time around we know more about the event, but, again, because of radiation fears and the ongoing nature of the tragedy, snap judgments will be as wrong as they were back then. In 1986, I tried to keep calm, but my investors didn't and many went into cash.
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But there was one thing we were certain of: The process of building a nuclear power plant would become so long and arduous that the fuel would be effectively finished.
That's what happened here in the U.S. The rest of the world, so energy-starved, kept building them. The older ones in our country, ones that were as vulnerable as Chernobyl, began to get decommissioned faster. The new ones were scrapped. They were very expensive to build anyway after the Three Mile Island debacle, and the fuel was never considered a serious source of energy again in America.
Instead we switched to coal and natural-gas power.
I think that if the current nuclear incident is contained, some people may say that the power plants held up even after a worst-case-scenario earthquake. I think that's a pipe dream even if nothing else occurs.
I see a wave of rebuilding, with natural gas being the preferred fuel. It's the fastest to build and the cheapest. I think if a country is tabula rasa, as Japan is now, it will opt for natural gas entirely because it is much cleaner than coal.
That means huge construction jobs with massive shipping requirements to Japan. It means materials and machinery will be in short supply and China's government-mandated slowdown will be countered.
To build plants, you need steel, concrete and, most importantly, aluminum and aluminum turbines. I suspect all of those commodities will jump in price, along with the iron ore and copper needed to create the steel and rebuild the electronic infrastructure.
This money will all be provided by Japan, so it will serve as a giant and quick stimulus to the world's infrastructure and infrastructure-related businesses. The most obvious players include Alcoa (AA), U.S. Steel (X), ArcelorMittal (MT), Vale (VALE),BHP Billiton (BHP) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).
That should be the case immediately today, although overall fears, a la Chernobyl, might initially put a damper on the market. That would cause these stocks to go down slightly with the rest of the market.
They are, however, the go-to names if the smoke clears and people believe the worst is over. If not, then I think they would be more late-day or second-day plays.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Alcoa and Vale.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.
Follow Cramer's trades for his Charitable Trust.
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This sounds rather myopic, especially when you consider that Jim Kramer is the man who tried to convince us that Lenny Dykstra is some kind of financial savant! Do us all a favor Jim: keep honking the horns, slapping the buzzers and talking a million miles an hour, because since you don't offer any sound financial advice, at least I can plop my 2 year old in front of the TV and allow her to be entertained.
If when Henry Ford built the first automobiles, the engine blew up when started and he stopped because of that, we would still be riding horses.
We learn from failure, and failures happen.
We learn from this and build better and stronger.
Sooner or later an accident will happen., ANyone remember the last great blackout that brought the eastern seaboard to a halt? SHould we stop using electricity because of that? No we look to build more safeguards. We learn from failures.
Cramer, stick to reportin on stock and things you know a little about.
Cramer your ability to move your lips before you engage your brain has not changed much. If you had any knowledge of the different type of reactors that are currently being used and the ones that are failing in Japan you would not be making such a generalized statement. Don't you have a button on your TV set that describes you? Hit the button "dope' dope;dope"!
If anything this situation is more of a reason to to continue to add new style nucluer facilities to take these old ones off line and utilize the remains as safe storage for spent rods.
You should be ashemed of yourself for being SO self serving.
US Energy policy?: No US drilling, no coal, no nuclear. Imported oil priced at the mercy of OPEC and if Cramer is right natural gas prices will go through the roof. Supply and demand, baby. Can't even use whale oil like our forefathers. Any venture capitalists out there ready to invest in a buggy whip manufacturer and maybe a national chain of blacksmiths?
Pat:
You are retarded if you believe in global warming. It is a trillionaires
scheme to rip off you and me on a unprecedented level. Give me a
break that earth has been cooling and warming for millions of years.
We have not put a dent in it. By the way why does Al Gore plan to make
billions off selling buying carbon credits. God, idiots like you perpetuate
the lies and deception these criminals prey on.
See who stands to make the most off global warming BS Lets see
Goldman Sachs - most if not all the investment banking giants -
politicians. Hmm one thing in common - all owned or part of the
Zionist world domination. Check the facts government - finance - media
anything with money - power control they own.
Japan, being that such a huge portion of their population is centered near the coasts, has some of the highest exposure to GW than any other industrial country outside of perhaps northern Europe. They have taken conservation, efficiency, and clean energy to heart. What they most certainly will NOT be doing int he wake of this tragedy is replacing all of their nuke plants with coal and natural gas plants which will exacerbate GW with their CO2 output.
As for the future of nuclear development in the U.S., seriously, how many current or potential sites sit on major fault lines? Next to none, making this disaster a pretty big non-issue outside of southern California. The only reason people would use this as an excuse not to build nukes here would be out of sheer ignorance. Ignorance your column is only reinforcing.
just some information for this person writing this article oil and gas are more of a problem then nuclear power.
Car pollution facts - Health effects
- About 80 people per DAY are killed in the USA from car induced air pollution
- 1996 EPA estimate: cars, trucks, and buses are responsible for over 3,000
cases of cancer
- China's 14 largest cities: air pollution kills 50,000 newborn babies
- Chinas 14 largest cities: air pollution 400,000 cases of respiratory illness every year
- In the formerly beautiful Hangzhou China, the sky is grey from car exhaust fumes.
- Car exhaust has also been linked to Asthma, Bronchitis, and other health hazards
-If you think bad air affects only other people, think again. New information shows
that air pollution from traffic increases the chance of heart attack for everybody
breathing that air. The results are in the Journal Lancet.
Lets put this in a language Cramer can understand:
Cramer -short on knowledge, long on panic. Oh and maybe just trying to make everyone rush out and buy natural gas related stock which he may own lots of, so profit on disaster. And then sell for a profit before the doomsday scenario fails to materialize.
Let's don't be total nitwits on this issue.
We have a worst case scenario, reactor designed in 1960 before plate tectonics were understood, completed in 1971 - built by the sea at sea level.
You have the largest earthquake ever recorded in Japan.
Score:
Earthquake - perhaps hundreds killed.
Tsunami - likely over ten thousand killed.
Powerplant - likely no one killed.
You couldn't design a more stringent torture test for a powerplant; taking the oldest one you have and putting it through a record disaster.
Will the power company be out billions to clean up the site - "you betcha."
Will lessons be learned and applied - that's the way engineering works.
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