You'll have to lose money to make it
Unless we have a severe recession, many of the stocks you see in free fall will be higher a year from now.
The speed is breathtaking. No human can keep up.
While we were able to rally, the rally seemed like a terrific opportunity to sell if only because you can buy it back at the conclusion of the last gulp -- if you would like to, that is.
Markets all seem to want to be down 20% for the year, and anything less seems, at this time, to be a gift.
As our Dow is down only 6% and is about the best-performing market in the world, you can figure that if it keeps pace with the others, it is a straight shot to 9,200. That's no support for anything, but it is a reasonable target if you think we are part of this wave flowing over the world.
My disaster target has been about 8,500, so 9,200 could be reasonable if we just keep pace -- and there is no particular reason that should not happen. So many are pinning their hopes on the Fed that it is a little unsettling. Last I looked, the Fed doesn't set stock prices.
So let's play it out.
Can you sell right here and then buy it back at 9,200? Not at this pace. I think only the most nimble can execute that trade.
Can you protect yourself?
Believe it or not, I still think that if you are choosing an undiversified portfolio, you still can sell banks, techs, government-paying health care and defense stocks.
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It was obviously a great trade to sell industrials and oils. I did not participate in that. I just felt that the other sectors were very vulnerable and that oil could go down to the mid-$80s if the margin buying -- not demand destruction but margin buying -- got crushed.
Investors who think it is demand destruction do not understand that unless the world stands still, you can't have oil go down from $96 to $75 in a couple of days, especially when Chinese inflation is heating up, as we learned last night, perhaps the worst new bit of data out there.
Doesn't matter. Some moron will espouse it Tuesday. We will have to listen.
Anyway, this is a serious assault on the integrity of how markets work.
It is 1987-like in its breathtaking breakage of the pricing structure. In some ways it is a combination of the flash crash of 2009, the Great Recession crash of 2008-09 and the market crash of 1987 all rolled up into a couple of days.
I am presuming that, because I do not see a severe recession coming, the extremes should not play out. Do I think we will drop 42% peak to trough intraday Tuesday to Tuesday in 1987? No. Do I think we can plummet 22% in a day? No.
Do I think that most of the banks are insolvent in this country and the equivalent of Lehman/AIG (AIG)/Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/Washington Mutual/Wachovia/Merrill Lynch awaits us? No.
Do I think that the machines have taken over like in 2010 with the flash crash? Totally.
Do I think that precipitates margin calls and dysfunctional, unpredictable markets? Absolutely.
Do I think that anything makes sense? Not in the next 24 to 48 hours.
But in the next year? Unless we have a severe recession, many of the stocks you see on your screen in free fall will be higher a year from now. Unfortunately, you have to be willing to lose it to make it, as you did in 1987, 2008-09 and in the flash crash.
That's why deep-in-the-money calls might be the way to go for almost all but low-dollar stocks. That's the only game plan that might work right now.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America, the parent company of Merrill Lynch.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network’s sites.
Follow Cramer's trades for his Charitable Trust.
Sell offs are a normal part of the market. Yesterday was 6th worse of 50 very large selloffs. Oh, well if you use it as an opportunity to buy and average down you holding price then you'll make more when it goes back up. If it never goes back up then that won't be your worst problem.
Do a search on Cramer and his predictions. He is a joke. He recommended Bank of America at the beginning of the year and now its lost 50% of its value. Its people like this on the news that sell the B.S. to the unknowing public.
My advice is to stay away from Cramer and his advice.
The markets are the lowest in how may years and your nugget of "expert" knowledge is that it will be higher in a year. I am running right now to my brokerage account based on your advice..... NOT...........................
WOW. This man is brilliant.!
Of course, I could have said all that crap too and I am no Financial Advisor.
Great strategy, the position of Treasury Chief should be available for Cramer as soon as Obama's ready to shove Geithner under the bus.
There's no doubt our financial woes and debt will be quickly solved with his logic and reasoning.
Upon his appointment, our credit rating should instantly dive to F- for total failure
Hmmmm, my father-in-law and I will probably pull 250k out of the markets this week. The dead cat bounce today may be over tomarrow(it was a light cat). The Fed announcement today does not change the long term problem. I would rather sit on the sidelines for a while and watch it play out. There is a reason corporations are sitting on billions of dollars in cash. Remember the 6 trillion lost in the last bottom bounce 08/09. Did your broker tell you to get out???
So you don't agree with Kramer? Fine. Please list all the positive economic news you have heard lately.
Jimmy Baby, I f you are going to continue making the big bucks you have to come up with your own analysis.I told everyone here YESTERDAY the very things you say TODAY.You're getting
a little ahead of yourself ,8500 really? Far be it from me to say it ain't so not being a learned goldman man..but let's deal with the near term .All you playaz out there notice
the 11,000 thing going on here this morning?pay attention, it counts and there is a pop quiz manana .My clx trade has been blowing your kmb trade doors in this morning..JAMES !booooooooooooooooya !!Have you been reading my vanity cards?sell,sell,sell NO
buy,buy,buy !Check out Newsweek..she knows just what it takes to make a pro blush,
she got Charlie Manson eyes.........
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