Facebook's stock plunge: Time to buy?

After a nosedive to a new low of just under $20 a share, it's either a sweet deal -- or a trap.

By TheWeek.com Aug 17, 2012 12:22PM

On Thursday, Facebook's (FB) shares dropped to their lowest level since the social media giant went public in May, as investors who were locked into holding 271 million shares became eligible to sell -- and sell they did. The stock, which debuted at $38 a share then briefly peaked at $45 a share, slid below $20 for the first time, closing at $19.87.


That was bad news for CEO and founder Mark Zuckerberg, whose fortune shrank by $600 million, to a still-hefty $10.2 billion. But while Zuckerberg can't sell his stock unit until the end of the year, any investor can now snap up a piece of Facebook, says Lee Brodie at CNBC. And several analysts say that "if you don't buy now, you'll kick yourself in days to come." 


At just below $20 a share, is it finally time to buy Facebook stock?


Buying now is a no-brainer: So "Facebook, the one-time darling of the social media investment community has fallen from grace," says Sherli Looi at Forbes. That's great: At $20, smart investors have a great opportunity to buy into a promising money-maker at a bargain price. "What is a fair value for Facebook? The answer can range between $30 or $55 a share," depending on whether the company captures "a measly 2% share of the global ads spend­ of $600 billion per year, or a more reasonable 5% share." Either way, the future looks bright for Facebook and its investors.


No. Facebook shares are still too pricey: Even with all the "carnage in Facebook shares" and new-found optimism among financial analysts, the company's stock still looks expensive, says Steven Russolillo at The Wall Street Journal. Facebook's revenue and new-member growth are slowing, costs are rising, and nobody is sure how -- or if --  Facebook is going to cash in on its billion users. Besides, its price-to-earning ratio is much higher than other tech titans, which alone suggests Facebook's "stock price remains too high relative to projected earnings, and could fall further."


If you buy now, know that it's high risk, high reward: The Facebook bears might be right, but "there's certainly a compelling reason to think about Facebook at or around $20 a share," says Matt Krantz at USA Today. Regular investors finally "have a shot at sweet revenge," since this is the rare time they could "make more on a hotly anticipated IPO than wealthy clients of investment banks" who bought at $38. Or not. The bottom line is that buying now is "an outsized and pricey risk," and most investors are better off with a diversified basket of large companies. "Speculators, though, cannot ignore a stock that's so down on its luck."


More from The Week

Tags: FB
15Comments
Aug 17, 2012 2:55PM
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Ever heard of the phrase "Don't catch a falling knife"?  Nuff said.
Aug 17, 2012 1:03PM
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I think if you bought Facebook at the IPO share price it might be a better time to sell. Since it traded just $0.01 above the battle of midway today there is still a chance to get out and say, “Well, at least I didn’t lose most of my money”, instead of, “Crap, I just lost all of my money”. Of course, that assumes you didn’t leverage your investment to the max, like many FB buyers and sellers did.

 

On the other hand, if you don’t own FB shares yet (and that’s very rare if you really think about it), you could buy now and then wait for it to trade at $9.51 before facing the fate of those in the paragraph above. Have at it.

 

I am sooo lovin’ right now those $20 puts I bought when the stock was trading at $26.

 

Aug 17, 2012 10:46PM
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At a current PE of 100 and forward PE of 40 it could go as low as $9-10 PS and then it might be a good buy if FB can come up with a plan to monetize their 500-600m users.
Aug 17, 2012 1:40PM
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Facebook is becoming more restrictive and abusive to its users - - it can disappear over night just as it appeared also - with it billions of your dollars
Aug 17, 2012 3:28PM
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Is now the time to buy stock in Facebook?

Is it ever a good time to play chicken with a train?

Is it ever a good idea to play Russian Roulette with a fully loaded semi-auto gun?

Is it ever a wise move to burn money in hopes it will magically multiply?

Need I go on or have I made the point quite clear?



Aug 17, 2012 11:10PM
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Not yet....FB can still plunge another $19.05
Aug 18, 2012 9:44AM
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It's not done yet! Facebook is not a tangible asset I will invest in. It simply produces nothing. It's a collection of gossip and a tool for predator's. I would assume most earnings come from advertising based on the user count. It doesn't even have a real CEO or CFO.
Aug 18, 2012 10:59AM
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In the headline is the word "plunge'....Really not much else to say...?
Aug 17, 2012 9:40PM
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It would seem to me that facebook assets are very low. like real-estate, value of work force, equipment holdings, free cash, and all the other items that make up the value of a company or empire. It's not there . do the math and it comes to about $10.00 a share. It's a stock that should have IPO at $15.00. So all the investors have now is a hope that face book will make a great gain on advertising fees . Put a user fee out there ,and the company will die overnight. so let it all stabilize, the stock will level out at $15.00, and someday down the road it may go up in value
Aug 19, 2012 3:16PM
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Love my privacy.Will not invest in any stock that can turn privacy matter upside down.Sorry
Aug 18, 2012 12:42PM
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Facebook already hit it's peak. People are already moving on to other platforms like Pininterest. The problem with this "social tech" it can change as quickly as the latest Fad - Not investing my money in this stock at any price.
Aug 19, 2012 4:51PM
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Apple will see a 1000.00 a share..Facebook will probably see.15..00 a share. You do your homework and see which is better for your portfpolio.And by the way Apple's valuation is still low..
Aug 20, 2012 9:48AM
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I wouldn't buy that crap with YOUR money!  It is all "smoke and mirrors" like several others of those social networking companies.  It reminds me of the dot-com bubble of several years ago.  I carefully stayed far away from those stocks then, just as I am with FB.  My son also stayed away, on my advise, and has thanked me more than once about that.

 

All of this social networking is a fad that will die a natural, but agonizing, death in a few years.

Aug 22, 2012 3:33PM
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I RECENTLY JOINED FB JUST TO SEE WHAT THE HOOPLA IS ABOUT IT. VERY FEW COMMERCIALS WHICH IS HOW IT WOULD GET REVENUE. WISH I HAD SHORTED IT WHEN THE SHARES BECAME AVAILABLE , WHAT A JOKE THAT IPO HAS BECOME BUT IT WILL BOTTOM AT SOME POINT.
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