Admit it: We're in a bull market
When your economy is better than everyone else's, taking cues from the same old indicators is stupid.
Think about it. What happened last night that really affected the U.S. equity markets? Italian car registrations? Eurozone-area jobless rate? So that's why we are going to sell our stocks down 0.5%?
But we accept it as gospel that the futures are right. Let me ask you: Were they right when we came in here every day trapped by the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)? Or oil? Or copper? Or some other world indicator?
The truth is somewhere else these days. Europe's got no growth. It might be bottoming, but there's no growth -- no "spark," as Citigroup (C) CEO Michael Corbat said the other day.
China's growth is decelerating from 10% to, what, let's call it 5%? Anything less than that might be bullish? They are finding that it's not easy to go from an export-driven market to one driven by consumption.
Brazil, the star of Latin America, wants to stay above 2% growth if it is lucky.
As for the U.S.? We are trying to go from 2% to 2.5% in gross domestic product growth. That's not enough for anyone to get excited about, and not enough to cause a tightening, but certainly better than anyone else.
The economy that's better than everyone else's doesn't have its terms dictated by the others, especially when everyone acknowledges that it isn't as bad as it used to be. That is a real good summary of the moment.
Now, this is all regarded as radical. When the U.S. indices hit their highs Tuesday -- some of it, I admit, thanks to month-end markups -- I was disgusted to hear the same old bears making the same old arguments without any shame or recognition. As usual, the bulls had to apologize for their bullishness. As usual, when a pretty simple USA Today headline the next day acknowledged that there had been a bull market going on for, say, 9,000 Dow ($INDU) points, this somehow constituted a red flag.
It's the same thing with the futures. Of course they are down, so of course the bull run is over, a victim of the same things that have kept it down for a year now -- except oops, sorry, it's been up!
So when you sell because the futures tell you to sell and because of the lemuring -- which is the same as the tapering -- just remind yourself: That didn't work at 12,000, 13,000, 14,000 or 15,000.
But you never know. This time could be different!
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and is long ADT and LINE.
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I'm delighted to hear that we are in bull market.
Otherwise I' be concerned about:
-an $85 bil a month crutch
-all those people out of work
-all those people on food stamps
-the damaging cost of Obamacare hanging over the economy
-deficit spending to infinity and beyond
-no serious attempts at pension reforms
-states and municipalities going bankrupt
-and on and on!
Get my drift?
well, call it whatever but i'm doing far better this year and feeling more secure than i've felt for the recent 10 years.
MY consumer spending is up this year. we bought a ford c-max car a month ago. so i did what i could to help consumer spending.
the company is sending me to england again next week so i'll see if i can help their economy out a little bit too. ok?
I didn't know we were talking about IRS "drivel" on this investment site...WTF was I thinking..??
I thought this Article was about "Bull Markets"...ABS ?? But what do I know...hmmm.?
See, I don't always read that other bullshidt....Or hang on "every word."
Here comes the profit taking. Proctor & Gamble down $1.78 a share. Whoooa.
Last night, my first dividend for SDT posted in my Schwab account about 8:00 p.m.
I've never seen a 20% dividend before.
So stating we are doing better isn't really the truth. We just haven't been punished yet for poor economic Fed and Bank polices. As a result, the Bull has run for several years. This isn't some new revelation. Now Jimmy, if you are now saying the Bull has Legs to run from here, that's an entirely different conversation. We are likely more at a tipping point from Bull to Bear, than another long Bull Run.
I don't buy into this at all. Especially if you have an economy that is so dependent on the rest of the world for energy, consumer goods, etc...
Mirage you make a good point and more or less valid....
I feel that will be changing in the upcoming future, and hope it slowly works its way out..
I think it will, but payments into our future will be wth us for years...
I might be a Minority, but not an illegal...?
My Gang is the old guys I play golf with, or some at Vet Clubs, maybe a few in Coffee shops.
I've known a few Ho's.
I ain't gonna talk about kids, somewhere else..??
But think I'm too old, not for condoms? But to get them for free..
Wow. Proctor & Gamble down $1.85, Boeing down $1.14, Exxon down $1.15. Here we go!
Going back 20 years, so as not to bore anyone that doesn't like to learn..Or not interested ?
Skipped 1992 to 1998, because of rocket ride of "a tripling DOW", Most of us know why..??
Apr...1998.....9,000 (all numbers are close within about 50 or so points of DOW closings)
Dec..1999....11,500 (rough patches in early 2000s)
Fall of 2006...in the 12,000s range.
Fall of 2008-2009....The Failing of the DOW, losing roughly 50%
2011...Bounces in the 12,000s
2012...Bounces in the 13,000s
Early...2013...Bounces in the 14,000s
Now....2013...In the 15,000 range...
This is just a thumbnail sketch of the DOW over 20 years...No Highs or Lows.
Gives you some insight to the progression, but not true specifics..
Anyone can check it further, for their own amusement..
But I still feel we have a trending Bull Market in place., at this time.
All others can make up their own mind.
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