Admit it: We're in a bull market

When your economy is better than everyone else's, taking cues from the same old indicators is stupid.

By Jim Cramer May 31, 2013 9:29AM

thestreet logoStock market Traders (© Comstock/Corbis)We've all come to the point where it becomes an exercise in stupidity to sell U.S. markets down on "same old same old" -- yet we still take our cues from the futures that are precisely that.

 

Think about it. What happened last night that really affected the U.S. equity markets? Italian car registrations? Eurozone-area jobless rate? So that's why we are going to sell our stocks down 0.5%?

 

But we accept it as gospel that the futures are right. Let me ask you: Were they right when we came in here every day trapped by the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)? Or oil? Or copper? Or some other world indicator?

 

The truth is somewhere else these days. Europe's got no growth. It might be bottoming, but there's no growth -- no "spark," as Citigroup (C) CEO Michael Corbat said the other day.

 

China's growth is decelerating from 10% to, what, let's call it 5%? Anything less than that might be bullish? They are finding that it's not easy to go from an export-driven market to one driven by consumption.

 

Brazil, the star of Latin America, wants to stay above 2% growth if it is lucky.

 

As for the U.S.? We are trying to go from 2% to 2.5% in gross domestic product growth. That's not enough for anyone to get excited about, and not enough to cause a tightening, but certainly better than anyone else.

 

The economy that's better than everyone else's doesn't have its terms dictated by the others, especially when everyone acknowledges that it isn't as bad as it used to be. That is a real good summary of the moment.

Now, this is all regarded as radical. When the U.S. indices hit their highs Tuesday -- some of it, I admit, thanks to month-end markups -- I was disgusted to hear the same old bears making the same old arguments without any shame or recognition. As usual, the bulls had to apologize for their bullishness. As usual, when a pretty simple USA Today headline the next day acknowledged that there had been a bull market going on for, say, 9,000 Dow ($INDU) points, this somehow constituted a red flag.

 

I guess we should just rave that it's a bear market and play it safe? I mean, didn't ADT (ADT) go down Thursday? Didn't Linn Energy (LINE), as well? That's bear-market behavior, right?

 

It's the same thing with the futures. Of course they are down, so of course the bull run is over, a victim of the same things that have kept it down for a year now -- except oops, sorry, it's been up!

 

So when you sell because the futures tell you to sell and because of the lemuring -- which is the same as the tapering -- just remind yourself: That didn't work at 12,000, 13,000, 14,000 or 15,000.

 

But you never know. This time could be different!

 

cramer

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and is long ADT and LINE.

 

 


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134Comments
May 31, 2013 10:18AM
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Sorry Jim but we are in a leveraged market.  And in my opinion this leverage thing is no different than terminal cancer.  Once you become addicted to leverage you die.  JMHO
May 31, 2013 12:10PM
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Surf the wave while it's here. I know folks who have made a pile 'O cash the last few years in this market. The trick is knowing when to bail out and go conservative investing before the plane hits the ground.
May 31, 2013 10:36AM
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I'm delighted to hear that we are in bull market.

 

Otherwise I' be concerned about:

 

-an $85 bil a  month crutch

-all those people out of work

-all those people on food stamps

-the damaging cost of Obamacare hanging over the economy

-deficit spending to infinity and beyond

-no serious attempts at pension reforms

-states and municipalities going bankrupt

-and on and on!

 

Get my drift?

May 31, 2013 11:21AM
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We have been in a major QE driven bull market since the spring of 2009. We have gone from a DJI of about 6500 to a DJI of 15,500. A DJI of 15,500 is supported by QE not by the fundamentals of the U.S. economy nor the fundamentals of the world economy.
May 31, 2013 10:15AM
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well, call it whatever but i'm doing far better this year and feeling more secure than i've felt for the recent 10 years. 

 

MY consumer spending is up this year.  we bought a ford c-max car a month ago.  so i did what i could to help consumer spending. 

 

the company is sending me to england again next week so i'll see if i can help their economy out a little bit too.  ok?

May 31, 2013 1:04PM
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Bull market?   Not when you adjust the market for the increase in M2 money supply...

Just to keep up with the  FED the market would need to be over 17500.

Now the market is going to continue to go up.  But the moment the FED stops printing look for the market to begin a major decline.

85 Billion a month is like sending every household in America a $1000 a month.  The question is did you get your check?   If you are like most of the middle class you got the bill instead, that is Obamanomics...
May 31, 2013 11:58AM
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We have been in a Bull market for a LONG time!
May 31, 2013 12:54PM
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I didn't know we were talking about IRS "drivel" on this investment site...WTF was I thinking..??

 

I thought this Article was about "Bull Markets"...ABS ?? But what do I know...hmmm.?

See, I don't always read that other bullshidt....Or hang on "every word."

May 31, 2013 3:24PM
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Here comes the profit taking.  Proctor & Gamble down $1.78 a share.  Whoooa.

 

 

May 31, 2013 2:38PM
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HOLY SNOT!

 

Last night, my first dividend for SDT posted in my Schwab account about 8:00 p.m.

 

I've never seen a 20% dividend before.

 

JAISUS!

 

 

May 31, 2013 10:02AM
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Well Jimmy, how many countries other than Japan are printing FAKE money on the level that the United States has done over the last several years. How many other countries have Big Banks which have hundreds of Trillions of farce mortgage Derivatives not reflected on their Balance Sheets at true value, mostly ZERO.

So stating we are doing better isn't really the truth. We just haven't been punished yet for poor economic Fed and Bank polices. As a result, the Bull has run for several years. This isn't some new revelation. Now Jimmy, if you are now saying the Bull has Legs to run from here, that's an entirely different conversation. We are likely more at a tipping point from Bull to Bear, than another long Bull Run.



May 31, 2013 3:59PM
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Fook them thar Scumbags, Swabbies..Get 'em.
May 31, 2013 2:34PM
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Why does MSN (Squawk/etc) always ... always position stories with a NEGATIVE. Street Signs just said 'Is the FED taking a wrecking ball to the housing market" ... AND DID NOT BACK IT UP!  This is an attempt to manipulate the Market,  MSN we deserve better
May 31, 2013 12:02PM
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"The economy that's better than everyone else's doesn't have its terms dictated by the others, especially when everyone acknowledges that it isn't as bad as it used to be."

I don't buy into this at all.  Especially if you have an economy that is so dependent on the rest of the world for energy, consumer goods, etc...
May 31, 2013 3:30PM
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It is STUPID not to say we are in a BULL MARKET !   The Titanic never hit a ICE BERGER Mr. Cramer !
May 31, 2013 2:07PM
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Mirage you make a good point and more or less valid....

I feel that will be changing in the upcoming future, and hope it slowly works its way out..

I think it will, but payments into our future will be wth us for years...

May 31, 2013 1:42PM
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I might be a Minority, but not an illegal...?

My Gang is the old guys I play golf with, or some at Vet Clubs, maybe a few in Coffee shops.

I've known a few Ho's.

I ain't gonna talk about kids, somewhere else..??

But think I'm too old, not for condoms? But to get them for free..

May 31, 2013 3:51PM
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Wow.  Proctor & Gamble down $1.85, Boeing down $1.14, Exxon down $1.15.  Here we go!

 

 

 

 

May 31, 2013 12:40PM
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Going back 20 years, so as not to bore anyone that doesn't like to learn..Or not interested ?

Skipped 1992 to 1998, because of rocket ride of "a tripling DOW", Most of us know why..??

Apr...1998.....9,000 (all numbers are close within about 50 or so points of DOW closings)

Jan...1999...11,000

Dec..1999....11,500 (rough patches in early 2000s)

Feb...2004...10,600

Apr....2006...11,400

Fall of 2006...in the 12,000s range.

May...2007...13,600

Oct....2007...14,000

Fall of 2008-2009....The Failing of the DOW, losing roughly 50%

Early...2010...10,000-11,000s

2011...Bounces in the 12,000s

2012...Bounces in the 13,000s

Early...2013...Bounces in the 14,000s

Now....2013...In the 15,000 range...

This is just a thumbnail sketch of the DOW over 20 years...No Highs or Lows.

Gives you some insight to the progression, but not true specifics..

Anyone can check it further, for their own amusement..

But I still feel we have a trending Bull Market in place., at this time. 

All others can make up their own mind.

 

May 31, 2013 12:06PM
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Is this article written Jim Cramer or Jim Jones trying to sell me on drinking the kool-aid? Jimmy baby you can't really think this market is accurate can you? The only reason this is what you call a bull market is because old Uncle Ben is pumping so much money into the system it should do nothing but go up, yet we've had wild ups and downs since the start of QE to the extent that we no longer really care about them, 10 years ago swings like these would have been business news front page items, now they are barely a foot note in the news briefs.
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