The evidence is building that U.S. consumers are feeling the pinch once again. They may not want to admit it -- with measures of consumer sentiment remaining buoyant -- but the underlying data suggests otherwise.

None of this is surprising, given the headwinds we face from a combination of stalled job growth, stagnant wages, higher costs for fuel and other necessities, higher taxes, and now, the prospect of furloughs for federal employees as the sequester kicks in.

Households just absorbed their largest hit to income in 20 years as all those end-of-the-year bonuses and dividend payments, designed to get around 2013's higher tax rates, came to an end. The question is: Will the drop continue?

First, it's worth mentioning that American consumers have yet to fully reverse the fallout from the last boom-bust cycle. Household debt loads remain high, by historical standards, as shown in the chart below of the ratio of household debt to inflation-adjusted disposable personal income.

This is because while overall debt levels have been falling slightly (mainly due to mortgage defaults and foreclosures) real disposable incomes have stagnated, as shown below, and will likely get worse as taxes rise and job growth stalls in the midst of a weakening global economy.

Add in the fact gas prices recently set a record high for February, rental housing rates are moving steadily higher, and the relentless rise in health care costs, and consumers are being pinched from all sides.

For now, households are trying to maintain their current spending levels by tapping into savings (pulling down the savings rate to just 2.4%) and are turning to credit again. In fact, household debt increased $31 billion last quarter to $11.3 trillion -- which is only the second quarterly increase since the 2008 financial crisis as credit card balances turned higher.

Unless the job market improves and wages start growing again this is unsustainable. Consumers will soon have no choice but to cut spending and hurt retail sales, which was the one area that kept the economy out of the ditch in the fourth quarter.

I'm not at all confident. And while stocks seem to be in their own reality these days, commodities, currencies, and fixed-income markets are all suggesting trouble lies ahead.

Today's drop in crude oil is especially notable, with the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) gapping lower. I've recommended my clients take advantage via the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) -- which is in my Edge Letter Sample Portfolio -- as well as the ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil (SCO).

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