Who are these experts?  Are these the smart people who are looking for "signs" and "hopes?"  Signs and hopes, and where do they find them, by using a Ouija Board or looking into a crystal ball?   Take the manipulated cost of a barrel of oil.  It goes up on signs of increasing demand in China, no Europe, no the United States, no developing nations.  It goes up in the summer when people are expected to maybe take a vacation.  And we can't forget Iran.  If the unemployment rate drops it goes up because these people may just have to drive to work.  Wow, and all this from experts!  Remember the Twilight Zone?  There is a sign post up ahead....  Whatever reality there is in looking for hopes and signs, or optimism, keep dreaming....  (Greece is a great example, no?  Are there now signs that things are getting better?)  The world is being run by soothsayers, magicians and crooks (aka experts).