"They are in a weak third position," Kagan said in an interview, adding that the Softbank deal "is going to give Sprint breathing room."

Under Softbank's control, Sprint, which will retain its current management team, will be able to spend the billions needed to bring its network up to the 4G speeds of AT&T and Verizon. The caveat is that the larger rivals are going to spend big bucks on their own networks as competition in the U.S. wireless market intensifies. Of course, all that will depend on whether U.S. regulators go along with having a U.S. communications company taken over by a Japanese one, which has never happened.

"Customers should not expect to see any changes for at least a year or two," Kagan said. "This is going to allow Sprint to maybe come up to AT&T and Verizon speeds."
 
Before Hesse joined Sprint, it was "crashing and burning," according to Kagan, who added that the company has since stabilized. He has been paid well for his efforts. In 2011, Hesse earned $11.9 million in total compensation, a 31% increase over the previous year. According to Sprint's latest proxy filing, Hesse may be eligible for a payment of about $16 million if there is a "change in control" of the company.  Sprint Spokesman Bill White points out in an email to MSN that "Dan will not be eligible for a CIC (Change In Control) payment once the SoftBank deal closes unless he was involuntarily terminated without cause or resigns with good reason within eighteen months of the deal closing."   The transaction is expected to close by mid-2013. As Bloomberg News noted, under Hesse's leadership 7.7 million contract customers left Sprint because difficulties in integrating the Nextel network hurt service. 

Combining Softbank and Sprint would create the world's third-largest mobile phone company by revenue, with 96 million users. Investors in Japan don't seem enthused about the deal, which is expected to close in 2013, and have sent shares of Softbank falling in Tokyo. Softbank, though, sees far better growth potential in the U.S. than in its home market.

This marriage is risky for both companies. Whether it is fruitful remains to be seen.

Jonathan Berr does not own shares of the listed stocks. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr. This post has been updated to add a comment from Sprint.