A murky outlook for Google Android tablets

New numbers from IDC show a dramatic decrease in expectations for Android-based tablets this year.

By Minyanville Jun 15, 2012 4:22PM
Market research firm IDC increased its 2012 tablet market forecast Thursday by a measly 1.2%, to 107.4 million units from 106.1 million.

However, a little seventh-grade math shows that IDC has an awfully murky outlook for Google (GOOG) Android tablet sales -- and an increasingly positive one for Apple's (AAPL) iPad.

Let's hop in the DeLorean, kick it up to 88 miles and hour and head back to March 13, 2012. On that day, IDC made a 21% increase in its 2012 tablet forecast by going from 87.7 million units to the aforementioned 106.1 million units. That was big.

On that fateful day, IDC's 2012 iPad forecast stood at 58 million units while its Android unit forecast was 46.9 million units.



I want you to focus on how this chart was presented -- when I moused over it, it revealed units.

Now let's look at the equivalent chart from yesterday, which displayed market share in terms of percentage:



Let's equalize the presentation.

When we take the new 2012 Google Android tablet market share forecast of 36.5% and multiply it by the new 107.4 million unit forecast for the market, we get 39.2 million units.

That 39.2 million number is a whopping 16.4% decrease from the 46 million unit forecast from March 13.

Likewise, IDC's forecast for Apple iOS units has gone from 58 million units to 67.1 million units (62.5% X 107.4 million units = 67.1 million units) -- a boost of 15.5%!

I suspect that these numbers aren't making the rounds because the mainstream media outlets didn't bother to do the math.

Now what's going on here?

Here's IDC's take on Apple's strength:

"After a very strong launch of new products in March, Apple's iPad shows few signs of slowing down," [Tom] Mainelli added. "The addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple's decision to keep two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices—moving the entry-level price down to $399—seems to be paying off as well. If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip on this market to become even stronger."

Elsewhere, IDC is taking down forecasts for eReaders since low-end tablets are taking share in the non-Apple part of the market:

While IDC increased its forecast for media tablets in 2012, the firm significantly lowered its forecast for eReaders in 2012. After a disappointing first quarter, and strong indications that low-priced tablets are significantly impacting demand, IDC now expects 2012 shipments to be stable at around 28 million units, down slightly from the 28.2 million units that shipped in 2011.

This makes sense, given that bargain-basement Android tablets like the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle Fire and the Barnes & Noble (BKS) Nook tablet aren't much more expensive than eReaders.

To wrap it up, assuming IDC's forecasts are in the neighborhood of correct, they lend credence to my view that the Google Android tablet market is much, much weaker than many Google bulls would like you to believe. (Read these two articles for additional data points:  Why the Google Android Tablet Market Is Far Weaker Than It Seems and Amazon's Kindle Fire Gets Smashed as Apple's iPad Regains Tablet Market Share.)

There is no tablet market.

There is only an iPad market.

Get the picture?

And oh yeah, since we're on the topic of who's on top, I'll kindly repost this chart detailing first-quarter mobile phone sales growth:



Yes, I'm biased as all get out.

But hey, at least I've got enough respect for you to back my views up with numbers.

Related Content


5Comments
Jun 16, 2012 2:51PM
Jun 18, 2012 11:18AM
Jun 17, 2012 12:19PM
avatar
At least your honest about your bias, but I don't trust your so called sources as accurate.  All you did was pull charts from other biased sources; that is dishonest.

Jun 18, 2012 10:04AM
avatar
reads more like articles from high school or younger writers
Jun 18, 2012 8:53AM
avatar
You're essentially arguing that IDC's incorrect guesses from March means iPad is better than Android tablets.

You go on to use IDC's change in guessing to assert that there is no tablet market, which basically ignores the data you yourself provided (36.5% of 107.4 devices).

Finally, since subconsciously you understand how horrible your argument is, you throw in unrelated data from Gartner about mobile phone sales growth.  While this data certainly will make Apple stockholders feel warm and fuzzy about their ownership, it has nothing to do with the tablet market and so its completely irrelevant to your entire article.

So, Michael Comeau, congratulations on showing the world you have absolutely no idea how to impartially analyze data.  While 7th grade math is useful for 7th graders, you should probably use something slightly more advanced when trying to claim that a growth trend that becomes equilibrium means a decline is coming in the future.

This being said, the credibility of Minyanville is already shot, so writing an article this horrible doesn't really surprise me at all.

Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

108
108 rated 1
257
257 rated 2
439
439 rated 3
626
626 rated 4
499
499 rated 5
530
530 rated 6
713
713 rated 7
522
522 rated 8
339
339 rated 9
136
136 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
UPLULTRA PETROLEUM Corp10
EOGEOG RESOURCES Inc10
SWNSOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY10
TAT&T Inc9
COPCONOCOPHILLIPS9
More

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.