The whopping US rally that wasn't
If Wall Street hadn't been closed for Sandy, the market would have jumped on a bevy of positive developments.
What rotten luck we have. Tuesday was the one day when insurers, oil, banks and Italian bonds traded up in Europe -- and U.S. trading was closed? That's unbelievable.
First, the big reinsurers in Europe -- the ones that, in many cases, backstop our insurers -- all traded up as Sandy looked as though it would be manageable. This means, first, that they have the reserves and, second, that they can raise rates.
I'm also amazed at how well Deutsche Bank (DB) is doing. The investment-banking business is looking terrific, and the trading side of the ledger has been extraordinary, with only two down days this year. I always knew Deutsche was a great bank, but now it is truly ascendant.
At the same time, UBS (UBS) announced big cuts to its fixed-income desk. The bank is exiting the business, which means the long-awaited consolidation and shrinkage of the business are upon us. Analysts on the Deutsche Bank call were ecstatic about the move. U.S. international banks would be jumping, too.
Over in oil, BP (BP) not only released a terrific quarter last night but also boosted its dividend. This is the same BP that has had to fire-sale properties endlessly because of the Macondo disaster. It looks like the company's earnings power, despite its divestitures, remains more than intact.
Finally, there's the Italian bond market. Last year at this time, we saw Italian 10-year bonds trading at 7%. That move caused a major sell-off in the U.S. market -- the S&P 500 ($INX) lost 400 points on the day that the 7% line was crossed.
Now Italy is raising 10-year money below 5%. And it is real demand, in part because Italy is turning into a success story.
Any one of these might have, at one point, triggered a rally in the U.S. But all of these? Who knows how high the market would have climbed.
Just our luck.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.
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Here's the DEAL......This is a FINANCIAL/ INVESTING SITE and FORUM..
We all know the STORM was terrible and bad for millions along the East Coast and all the way to Michigan...Now heading North into Canada to rain and blow itself out...
No one is laughing about the despair or loss of life and the aftermath mess and loss of power..
We all feel bad for all that...Including Jim Cramer and the Street Staff..
So I recommend you get a grip or go to YOU TUBE and FACEBOOK to commesurate(sp) with people to talk and bitch about the storm..
My GRANDSON living in the City now for about 6 months (Brooklyn) is out helping clean up and helping people.....WTF are you doing...???
Rally??? What rally were you referring to .... The stock market has tanked in the last 2 weeks before Sandy. The economy is in the toilet and our crushing debt is unpayable. The country is close to being BKed and we are talking about a rally??
We ned Jim Mora doing his playoffs rant!!! "Rally, rally .... are you crazy??"
To funny as Chris Christie is being interviewed by fox. The question was asked would you allow Romney to tour NJ with you. Just before Christie could answer you could see just under Christie the announcement that Romney would be touring Sandy with Christie.
The funnyt part is Christe answered by saying
I probably should reconsider FEMA, but I thought the Obama Administration, was going to shake it up after the Fiasco in New Orleans...Katrina.
Maybe it needs,some cuts....BUT FIRST, I would like to see any/all elimination of Fraud...
That can be 10-15% or more of the budget itself.
Much like Soc. Sec. and Medicare, along with the DOD, DOE, and DOT.
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