The whopping US rally that wasn't

If Wall Street hadn't been closed for Sandy, the market would have jumped on a bevy of positive developments.

By Jim Cramer Oct 31, 2012 9:35AM

TheStreet LoGOImage Source, PhotolibraryWhat rotten luck we have. Tuesday was the one day when insurers, oil, banks and Italian bonds traded up in Europe -- and U.S. trading was closed? That's unbelievable.

 

First, the big reinsurers in Europe -- the ones that, in many cases, backstop our insurers -- all traded up as Sandy looked as though it would be manageable. This means, first, that they have the reserves and, second, that they can raise rates.

 

I'm also amazed at how well Deutsche Bank (DB) is doing. The investment-banking business is looking terrific, and the trading side of the ledger has been extraordinary, with only two down days this year. I always knew Deutsche was a great bank, but now it is truly ascendant.

 

At the same time, UBS (UBS) announced big cuts to its fixed-income desk. The bank is exiting the business, which means the long-awaited consolidation and shrinkage of the business are upon us. Analysts on the Deutsche Bank call were ecstatic about the move. U.S. international banks would be jumping, too.

 

Over in oil, BP (BP) not only released a terrific quarter last night but also boosted its dividend. This is the same BP that has had to fire-sale properties endlessly because of the Macondo disaster. It looks like the company's earnings power, despite its divestitures, remains more than intact.

Finally, there's the Italian bond market. Last year at this time, we saw Italian 10-year bonds trading at 7%. That move caused a major sell-off in the U.S. market -- the S&P 500 ($INX) lost 400 points on the day that the 7% line was crossed.

 

Now Italy is raising 10-year money below 5%. And it is real demand, in part because Italy is turning into a success story.

 

Any one of these might have, at one point, triggered a rally in the U.S. But all of these? Who knows how high the market would have climbed.

 

Just our luck.

JIM Cramer's Face 

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.

 

 

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170Comments
Oct 31, 2012 10:29AM
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"What rotten luck we have."

Yes cramer "rotten luck" that the markets did not rally because of the storm!!

Never mind the 40 - 50 dead and the hundreds of millions living without power and sanitation.

You are really showing your true colors this morning.
Oct 31, 2012 11:13AM
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The only way I see to end this corrupt farce in Washington once and for all is to scrap the loser congress and let the people vote directly on the major issues; a direct democracy. I can hear the elites and special interests who game and twist the current system crying even at the idea. They have reason to be very afraid of it. In Iceland for example, where their proposed bank bailouts were put to a vote of the people, I understand they voted 90% NO! I believe we would have voted much the same here. I guess the people in Iceland have more freedom than we do.
Oct 31, 2012 10:26AM
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How nice to see CNBC and the Exchanges patting each other on the back this morning for doing such a fantastic job in reopening wall street. 

Special kudos to cramer for bravely continuing to run his mad money infomercial show and jumping around like a demented buffoon while hundreds of millions were in misery with no power.

The culture of money worship we have got to is beyond belief.

When this is done why don't you people (wall street and journalists) do some good and treat all the first responders, Fema workers and power workers to a free week for their families in AC or NY or DC or whatever.
Oct 31, 2012 10:49AM
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Wall Street is dead set on taking the gains away and nothing in the world will change taht. They are in manipulation mode till its gone!
Oct 31, 2012 10:38AM
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Oh OK, blame the weather because you are getting beat on Wall Street. Unbelievable.
Oct 31, 2012 11:13AM
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History will record the news media of this time as the worst.

 

Instead of informing people they want to guide/convince people. That is NOT your job here in the USA.

Oct 31, 2012 10:22AM
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Jim;  Is your life to you soo foolhardy you should ask the dumbest what if?  Yea Jim we would have hit 15,000 by now without the storm.  Be on terra firma  for once maybe.  Who cares about what if? I guess we can now go down the path of having a contest of who can make the dumbest storm comment.  You now lead Jimbo!
Oct 31, 2012 10:49AM
Oct 31, 2012 10:44AM
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Here's the DEAL......This is a FINANCIAL/ INVESTING SITE and FORUM..

 

We all know the STORM was terrible and bad for millions along the East Coast and all the way to Michigan...Now heading North into Canada to rain and blow itself out...

 

No one is laughing about the despair or loss of life and the aftermath mess and loss of power..

We all feel bad for all that...Including Jim Cramer and the Street Staff..

So I recommend you get a grip or go to YOU TUBE and FACEBOOK to commesurate(sp) with people to talk and bitch about the storm..

My GRANDSON living in the City now for about 6 months (Brooklyn) is out helping clean up and helping people.....WTF are you doing...???

Oct 31, 2012 11:43AM
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Please tatke Cramer off - he is an insult to the entire country - except for Wallstreet which behaves at his level - well, not as bad. what is a man like him dpoing dispensing information - he is as insensitive it it gets
Oct 31, 2012 1:23PM
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Rally??? What rally were you referring to .... The stock market has tanked in the last 2 weeks before Sandy. The economy is in the toilet and our crushing debt is unpayable. The country is close to being BKed and we are talking about a rally??

 

We ned Jim Mora doing his playoffs rant!!!   "Rally, rally .... are you crazy??"

Oct 31, 2012 11:13AM
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To funny as Chris Christie is being interviewed by fox. The question was asked would you allow Romney to tour NJ with you. Just before Christie could answer you could see just under Christie the announcement that Romney would be touring Sandy with Christie. 

 

The funnyt part is Christe answered by saying

I have no idea, nor am I the least bit concerned or interested,” he said. “I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than Presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff.”

Oct 31, 2012 11:50AM
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The market will be down for awhile until the parasites can conjure up a scheme with their despots as to how they can profit from the latest catastrophes.... Nothing but a bunch of vulturous, rabid animals taking advantage of the countries misfortunes.    
Oct 31, 2012 1:02PM
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I probably should reconsider FEMA, but I thought the Obama Administration, was going to shake it up after the Fiasco in New Orleans...Katrina.

 

Maybe it needs,some cuts....BUT FIRST, I would like to see any/all elimination of Fraud...

That can be 10-15% or more of the budget itself.

 

Much like Soc. Sec. and Medicare, along with the DOD, DOE, and DOT.

Oct 31, 2012 11:51AM
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Cramer is a direct reflection of the critical mass in America ;  what wrong folks, a little sick at seeing yourself in the mirror

Oct 31, 2012 11:26AM
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Maybe someday emptyhead will be in dire straits and wait for 7 hous for help that could make it there to no avail.
Oct 31, 2012 11:52AM
Oct 31, 2012 1:01PM
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The "seven hours" debate will forever be etched in history.  The same group of people who sat in the room watching the Bin Laden event were present watching the drones over Libya.  This time the POTUS said no to any aid because of fear of disrupting his campaign with the possiblity of making a mistake. . Basically handing out a death sentence.  So for those who wonder what and why this is the wherefore and if he was but half the man of honour libs try and make us believe him into being he would say such.  Not going to happen folks.  That party is morally bankrupt and any and all of us must pay the price for their spiritual dimness .  Democrats with any honour at all would demand an explaination right now,  today!
Oct 31, 2012 11:00AM
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I surprised not to here from 'lost on Earth' . He finally got what he's been posting here for years that Wall street die- for 2 day's.

 

And on the third day, it rose again.

 

Lost: (or is it VL) There is still time for you to be saved !

Oct 31, 2012 10:31AM
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I agree, shoulda, woulda, coulda been some upside...BUT

Home Improvement..

REITS....

Gold miners.. and

Some oil/gas.....ALL DOING FINE TODAY.

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