The whopping US rally that wasn't

If Wall Street hadn't been closed for Sandy, the market would have jumped on a bevy of positive developments.

By Jim Cramer Oct 31, 2012 9:35AM

TheStreet LoGOImage Source, PhotolibraryWhat rotten luck we have. Tuesday was the one day when insurers, oil, banks and Italian bonds traded up in Europe -- and U.S. trading was closed? That's unbelievable.

 

First, the big reinsurers in Europe -- the ones that, in many cases, backstop our insurers -- all traded up as Sandy looked as though it would be manageable. This means, first, that they have the reserves and, second, that they can raise rates.

 

I'm also amazed at how well Deutsche Bank (DB) is doing. The investment-banking business is looking terrific, and the trading side of the ledger has been extraordinary, with only two down days this year. I always knew Deutsche was a great bank, but now it is truly ascendant.

 

At the same time, UBS (UBS) announced big cuts to its fixed-income desk. The bank is exiting the business, which means the long-awaited consolidation and shrinkage of the business are upon us. Analysts on the Deutsche Bank call were ecstatic about the move. U.S. international banks would be jumping, too.

 

Over in oil, BP (BP) not only released a terrific quarter last night but also boosted its dividend. This is the same BP that has had to fire-sale properties endlessly because of the Macondo disaster. It looks like the company's earnings power, despite its divestitures, remains more than intact.

Finally, there's the Italian bond market. Last year at this time, we saw Italian 10-year bonds trading at 7%. That move caused a major sell-off in the U.S. market -- the S&P 500 ($INX) lost 400 points on the day that the 7% line was crossed.

 

Now Italy is raising 10-year money below 5%. And it is real demand, in part because Italy is turning into a success story.

 

Any one of these might have, at one point, triggered a rally in the U.S. But all of these? Who knows how high the market would have climbed.

 

Just our luck.

JIM Cramer's Face 

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.

 

 

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170Comments
Oct 31, 2012 12:54PM
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Cramer, you are a complete moron ! You might want to think about all of the peple suffering because of this storm instead of making moronic comments.

The only reason the stock market rally is over is because the  unending greed and corruption of wall street and our government can't get enough of the tax payers money. PERIOD !!! 

This is killing any chance the working class has of saving ANYTHING for retirement !

I sure hope the American people wake up and kick Barrack, Barry or whatever the anti American imposter's name is and his corrupt bottom feeding administration out of the "Peoples White House".

Time to clean the slate and start with honest workig tax paying Americans who actually do give a crap about what happens to the country.

Oct 31, 2012 12:53PM
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Classic....Lost o/e celebrates,when his Mom brings home Twinkies....

Although I do too, when Miss Lilly buys me some.

 

Someone, gas @the pump has been dropping drastically, but we had a slight increase this A.M.

Oil per barrel has been down, but there has been a slight glut of gas or fuel. Last fill $3.23...per

 

We bought hamburger @ $1.88 on a "Wild Wednesday" sale this A.M. (makes good chili)

Otherwise the past 2-3 weeks ground beef (chk steak) @ 2.79-2.89(sale)....I kinda think it's all about smart shopping; We don't clip coupons, but we do wait for deals...ANYONE CAN.

Oct 31, 2012 12:49PM
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Looks like approx 100 million in Insider stock of FB was "disposed off" on 10/26 before the rank and file got to sell theirs.

How does that feel to you rank and file FB employees ?
Oct 31, 2012 12:46PM
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Remember when Mitt Romney had his Disaster Relief Rally yesterday....instead of a Campaign Rally?  .LOL....

It's been reported that the Romney Campaign  went to Walmart and purchased 5,000 dollars of can foods and such to have on display for the crowd......

How low will this guy go?????
Oct 31, 2012 12:44PM
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If any of the poor victims of this National disaster are thinking FEMA will give them any aid and comfort at their time of need they will be very dissapointed. The Feds take two thirds of every FEMA dollar to support their own beaucracy.  Trickle down is more apt an assessment for FEMA than anything Reagan created.   Just drop the federal checks in the accounts for the States and Municipalities, then th feds should get out of the way,  and then we will have something that more resembles Social Justice.
Oct 31, 2012 12:37PM
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I am all in favor of "cutting a lot of fat and spending" out of the Budget..And eliminating Depts.

 

But FEMA was never on "MY LIST."

 

Who the hell,is that stupid.....??

The States have "never had" the Resources to take care of Major Disasters.

Oct 31, 2012 12:35PM
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Mitt Romney on the wake of the devastation of the East Coast.......Here is a statement he made today in Florida.....about coming together after Sandy.....    

"We come together at times like this, and we want to make sure they have a speedy recovery from their FINANCIAL and many cases personal loses"...

His priorities are on full display with this statement... With thousands out of food and water and electricity, and a home,  many deaths, Mitt can only see the Devastation in the form of  MONEY.......



 


Oct 31, 2012 12:32PM
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Re-TOG, maybe it would go back to normal. Food and energy might actually be priced based on supply and demand, not what some speculators think it should be...imagine that?
Oct 31, 2012 12:31PM
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Irony is that Sandy will come to provide a stimulus to the economy from the private sector, as insurance companies use reserves to rebuilt infrastructure, and the public sector through FEMA helps the rebuilding and recovery. There is a perversity in distrasters enhancing the GDP.
Oct 31, 2012 12:30PM
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This election is now truly up in the air.  With a lot of voters in the post storm states facing the decision of trying to find a voting station, or cleaning up the mess from the storm / job / bills, who knows how many voters will actually vote compared to those who have more important matters to attend to. Voting isn't usually a priority when other things need their attention. Should be interesting and expecting a lower turnout.
Oct 31, 2012 12:30PM
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DLH....I'm a little perplexed..??  What does your comment mean; "About Dire Straits and 7 hours,"

Directed towards EmptyChair..??

Oct 31, 2012 12:29PM
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When all said and done......President Obama will win this election in a Landslide getting 340 in the  Electoral College......also winning the Popular Vote by huge numbers....... 

The polls are flawed on the Latino vote which has not been truly represented.....Add in the Latino vote and this election is not close...
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Actually the rally was over about 3 weeks ago. It has been slowly selling off so as not to cause a panic and have alot of investors jerk their money out.

It will improve or get worse after Nov. 6th..

Oct 31, 2012 12:27PM
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Someone that's kinda lame and really just stupid....If the Storm wiped or wipes out Wall ST.

 

What do YOU THINK it would do to the rest of the Country ??

 

Actually that's an oxy-moron, Because YOU DON'T THINK....Do you ??

Oct 31, 2012 12:23PM
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Hmmmmmmmm, Maybe someday the DOW,  "MIGHT" hit 12,000.

 

Although someday it may hit 14,000; Hmmmm, just sayin'  October,31st. 2012. Halloween,Re-TOG.

Oct 31, 2012 12:22PM
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It's sad to see the devastation on the east coast and the lives that were lost. I was rooting for this storm to miss everything and everyone except Wall St. and leave your commodity gouging, speculating, cut-in -line trading supercomputers pickling in 4' of saltwater brine.

 

Oct 31, 2012 12:17PM
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This what "pundits" do as they must.  He has been a con job from the get go....he will not change. All of the "networks" are full of it.  Just enjoy it as it will not make any difference.  You have an entire phony in office that could not find his butt with both hands...and, you have the other guy.  Nothing will change with all this.  Just relax and have fun with it.   
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Nah,

 

Once Bernanke gets the water out of the printing presses and starts them up again it's DOW 20,000 by the end of this year and DOW 40,000 by the end of next year.

 

Bernanke go buy a few subpumps and let's get those printing presses going.

Oct 31, 2012 11:55AM
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(Reuters) - Ally Financial Inc, the U.S. auto lender 74 percent owned by the U.S. government, on Wednesday said it has repaid $2.9 billion in debt issued under a financial-crisis-era program designed to bolster confidence in the banking system.


The debt, issued on Oct 30, 2009, came due on Tuesday. The lender plans to repay the remaining $4.5 billion in debt it issued under the program in December.


Look, folks, I am not in love with the banks either, after what they did to us, however, this entire

argument about (1) Obama getting us into debt, (2) the banks got 'free money' and (3) the government never made a profit are all BUNK!   Give it a rest...

Send blood and donations to the Red Cross instead of posting today.


And send Cramer to shill for Fox News.  No offense to Cramer, but

FOX could use an 'improvement'.

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