The whopping US rally that wasn't

If Wall Street hadn't been closed for Sandy, the market would have jumped on a bevy of positive developments.

By Jim Cramer Oct 31, 2012 9:35AM

TheStreet LoGOImage Source, PhotolibraryWhat rotten luck we have. Tuesday was the one day when insurers, oil, banks and Italian bonds traded up in Europe -- and U.S. trading was closed? That's unbelievable.


First, the big reinsurers in Europe -- the ones that, in many cases, backstop our insurers -- all traded up as Sandy looked as though it would be manageable. This means, first, that they have the reserves and, second, that they can raise rates.


I'm also amazed at how well Deutsche Bank (DB) is doing. The investment-banking business is looking terrific, and the trading side of the ledger has been extraordinary, with only two down days this year. I always knew Deutsche was a great bank, but now it is truly ascendant.


At the same time, UBS (UBS) announced big cuts to its fixed-income desk. The bank is exiting the business, which means the long-awaited consolidation and shrinkage of the business are upon us. Analysts on the Deutsche Bank call were ecstatic about the move. U.S. international banks would be jumping, too.


Over in oil, BP (BP) not only released a terrific quarter last night but also boosted its dividend. This is the same BP that has had to fire-sale properties endlessly because of the Macondo disaster. It looks like the company's earnings power, despite its divestitures, remains more than intact.

Finally, there's the Italian bond market. Last year at this time, we saw Italian 10-year bonds trading at 7%. That move caused a major sell-off in the U.S. market -- the S&P 500 ($INX) lost 400 points on the day that the 7% line was crossed.


Now Italy is raising 10-year money below 5%. And it is real demand, in part because Italy is turning into a success story.


Any one of these might have, at one point, triggered a rally in the U.S. But all of these? Who knows how high the market would have climbed.


Just our luck.

JIM Cramer's Face 


Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.



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Oct 31, 2012 11:52AM
Oct 31, 2012 11:51AM
Cramer is a direct reflection of the critical mass in America ;  what wrong folks, a little sick at seeing yourself in the mirror

Oct 31, 2012 11:50AM
Next time I get it up I'm going to shellac it Said:
Sep 6, 2012 1:23PM    Hi I made this post originally three months ago.  I still stand by this prediction.
Hi Anthony;  I still have my 13,500 to 13,600 prediction as I said 2 months ago.  I think we touch that for a bit then retrace to 11,800 or so. We shall see.===================================
So if as you say it reached that amount and you are correct then your prediction has come true, go party.
Oct 31, 2012 11:50AM
The market will be down for awhile until the parasites can conjure up a scheme with their despots as to how they can profit from the latest catastrophes.... Nothing but a bunch of vulturous, rabid animals taking advantage of the countries misfortunes.    
Oct 31, 2012 11:50AM

Michael says - How exactly is a bankrupted state supposed to cover costs?


Is is so much better to borrow it from China........... Why don't you liberals just petition to take the word bankrupt out of the dictionary?

Oct 31, 2012 11:49AM

Good article from the MSN page....titled "Romney faces scrutiny on aid..."

"And so Mitt Romney found himself on the hot seat after superstorm Sandy battered the East Coast. Only last year, as Romney hewed to the right while battling for the GOP nomination, he appeared to suggest in a debate that the Federal Emergency Management Agency should be shuttered and its responsibilities left to the states.

"Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction," Romney said at a debate last year. "And if you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that's even better."


With Obama heavily involved in getting federal funds to those in trouble, the Romney campaign moved quickly to reassure the public it supports a strong program of storm relief.

"A Romney-Ryan administration will always ensure that disaster funding is there for those in need," said campaign spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg. - WELL, WHICH IS IT?


Oct 31, 2012 11:45AM

This whole thing had something to do with Al Gore?  Just can't put my finger on it.


God Bless the Sandy victims!

Oct 31, 2012 11:44AM
Sep 6, 2012 1:23PM    Hi I made this post originally three months ago.  I still stand by this prediction.
Hi Anthony;  I still have my 13,500 to 13,600 prediction as I said 2 months ago.  I think we touch that for a bit then retrace to 11,800 or so. We shall see.
Oct 31, 2012 11:43AM
Please tatke Cramer off - he is an insult to the entire country - except for Wallstreet which behaves at his level - well, not as bad. what is a man like him dpoing dispensing information - he is as insensitive it it gets
Oct 31, 2012 11:42AM

I'm sorry Vineyard60, I gave 'lost' credit he didn't deserve concerning your post over the years.


So you finally got your wish -  for two day's.

And on the third day, it rose again !

Oct 31, 2012 11:37AM
Not to worry, once the damage is assessed, the market will skyrocket. Lowe's, Home Depot, Georgia-Pacific construction wood... Rebuilding roadways, so look for ashpalt products to go up, same for gas and other petroleum products, there will be a much greater demand for the upcoming quarter. Only stocks I see dropping, should be insurance stocks, and only short term. Just be thankful that this storm didn't happen after January. You'd be screwed without FEMA bailing your @sses out. How exactly is a bankrupted state supposed to cover costs? Please think before voting.
Oct 31, 2012 11:36AM

"Jim;  Is your life to you soo foolhardy you should ask the dumbest what if?"


You whacks miss the point, big surprise.


Here I'll give you a clue:  "a bevy of positive developments."


If it makes you feel better give the credit to Romney, LOL.

Oct 31, 2012 11:26AM
Maybe someday emptyhead will be in dire straits and wait for 7 hous for help that could make it there to no avail.
Oct 31, 2012 11:24AM

" I believe this event will have little effect on the election. =================================



It just shows you're as much of a blowhard as Romney.

Oct 31, 2012 11:22AM
Wall Street=Fraud Street = DIE WALL STREET DIE !
Oct 31, 2012 11:22AM

Appearing on the networks this morning, Christie, for the third day in a row, heaped praise on Obama’s handling of the storm. “The President has been outstanding in this,” he told the “Today” show. On “Morning Joe,” he said, “It’s been very good working with the President. He and his Administration have been coördinating with us. It’s been wonderful.” Speaking on CNN, Christie said that he had been mightily impressed by Obama’s accessibility throughout the crisis. “He gave me his number at the White House, told me to call him if I needed anything, and he absolutely means it.” Christie also pointed out that Obama didn’t once bring up politics in their conversations, and added, “If he’s not bringing it up, you can be sure that people in New Jersey are not worried about that, primarily if one of the guys running isn’t."



Thank God for Romney's support of FEMA ROTFLMAOAYFOOLS.

Oct 31, 2012 11:18AM

""DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co posted a surprisingly strong profit on Wednesday and said it was targeting a return to break-even levels in its European operations by mid-decade after a loss of as much as $1.8 billion in that region this year.

Shares of the automaker rose more than 5 percent in early trading.

"We still have a lot of work to do, especially in Europe," GM Chief Financial Officer Dan Ammann said in a statement.

GM's third-quarter net income attributable to common shareholders fell to $1.48 billion, or 89 cents a share, from $1.74 billion, or $1.03 a share, a year earlier. On Tuesday, smaller U.S. rival Ford Motor Co reported a far higher-than-expected profit of $1.63 billion for the quarter.""


Thanks Romney for saving the auto industry, ROTFLMAOAYFOOLS

Oct 31, 2012 11:13AM

To funny as Chris Christie is being interviewed by fox. The question was asked would you allow Romney to tour NJ with you. Just before Christie could answer you could see just under Christie the announcement that Romney would be touring Sandy with Christie. 


The funnyt part is Christe answered by saying

I have no idea, nor am I the least bit concerned or interested,” he said. “I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than Presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff.”

Oct 31, 2012 11:13AM

History will record the news media of this time as the worst.


Instead of informing people they want to guide/convince people. That is NOT your job here in the USA.

Oct 31, 2012 11:13AM
The only way I see to end this corrupt farce in Washington once and for all is to scrap the loser congress and let the people vote directly on the major issues; a direct democracy. I can hear the elites and special interests who game and twist the current system crying even at the idea. They have reason to be very afraid of it. In Iceland for example, where their proposed bank bailouts were put to a vote of the people, I understand they voted 90% NO! I believe we would have voted much the same here. I guess the people in Iceland have more freedom than we do.
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