Stocks look too good to be true
The charts show too many stocks in too many sectors looking ready to break out. Almost every time that has happened, there's been something lurking that turns things around.
Sometimes too many charts look too good for the market's health. Sometimes you just get a feeling that everything looks like a breakout and there's no way anything can go wrong.
That's how I feel going into the week after looking through the chart book. There are just too many stocks, too many kinds of stocks -- oil, minerals, telecom, health care (excluding pharma), high-growth tech, and even a lot of banks -- for my comfort.
Many times I have sat here before the market opened on a Monday thinking that it looks like the monster breakout week, when in reality we'd been rallying for some time. You look, for example, at the fetching charts of Noble Energy (NBL), Nabors (NBR), National Oilwell Varco (NOV) or of Bard (BCR), Cerner (CERN), Laboratory Corp. of America (LH) and DaVita (DVA) and say, "These are total breakouts about to happen" -- and then it turns out that was as good as it got.
Of course, not everything is looking all that healthy. Anything PC-related looks sick as a dog. Anything networking-related looks terrible. This is that conundrum of a lack of upward movement from Apple (AAPL), plus relentless pressure down from Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). I continue to think that the semiconductor stocks have peaked short term.
I see no reason to say "own them," except that I don't want to be ridiculed by people who already own them and are digging in their heels, and that's not enough to sway me.
I would feel better if oil stopped this nonsense already and if we had more clarity on the budget deficit reductions -- meaning are they real? I also would like to see some cessation of the troublesome reactor problem, because the Japanese can't get that reconstruction under way without an end to the radiation leaks.
So I am adopting a too-good-to-be-true approach to this session, as the charts are all just too good. Because almost every time that has happened, there's been something lurking that turns things around, and we are the most overbought since last summer's late swoon before the election shifted things so much to the positive.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Apple.
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Jim, ye of little faith, Obama and the Tea Party will screw it up, just give them a week or two
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