A pathetic, deranged view of the oil slide
Somehow it's considered a bad thing, because we take it as a sign of European weakness. What about all the upsides for the US economy?
I'm talking about the price of oil, which had its worst week in 30 years. Somehow, this is considered to be terrible news when it comes to U.S. equities, because it shows the underlying weakness in our economy and in economies worldwide.
This is a pathetic, deranged view of things.
The ratio of companies that benefit from this to those that don't could be near 10 to 1. The ratio of people who benefit -- even with a severe refinery shortage -- is about 100 to 1, with the one being the marginal player who might otherwise be looking for a job in the oil patch that may now be deferred.
But it will provide no lift to the stock market. I have seen so many other instances when you could have expected a gigantic upside move simply because this tax on American consumers is so dastardly. I have seen monster rallies based solely on the renewed purchasing power that comes from having not pennies but nickels and quarters left over from the pump.
Not this time.
That's because we know declining oil is a sign of European weakness and we have been conditioned to believe that a collapse of this magnitude means Spain or Italy may be going under soon, taking with it the finances of the Western world.
In other words, something that's very good for us is, well, bad for us. The only positive factor we might hear about from this is that the Chinese will now have plenty of room to cut rates. You won't hear about purchasing power and the ability to go to the mall and spend more money at Macy's (M) or Nordstrom (JWN) or Limited (LTD). You won't hear about how Gap (GPS) benefits or about food and beverages that are sold in convenience stores. You won't learn that airlines or food companies or industrial makers of glasses, boxes and aluminum are going to do better. You won't get the estimate increases that come from this decline in energy.
If anything, you will hear that the rally in the 10% of the market that is oil and gas is now kaput and that those losses will have to be taken. The big oil-and-gas-related ETFs will come crashing down, taking with them some large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) stocks such as Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). The same will go for huge oil-service concerns like Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) -- where Goldman Sachs just tried to call a bottom -- and Baker Hughes (BHI).
All of this is, well, nonsense. But it is nonsense based on the endless "Spain is Lehman Bros. times 10" chatter that can't ever be defeated, because we know Wall Street can destroy anything in this country after what happened in 2008 to 2009.
So we take what perhaps could be the biggest positive in 30 years -- the collapse of the most dastardly commodity on earth -- and we sell stocks that are most affected positively. Somehow, we accept as gospel that such sales are the smartest things we can do.
Is all this too stupid for words? It isn't if the only people who buy and sell stocks don't view them as companies but, rather, as just playthings to toss around in order to make the quarter. It isn't if U.S. banks truly are on the hook to Europe, meaning they have learned nothing from the Great Recession -- and, from the looks of stocks, they have learned nothing at all.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, and has no positions in stocks mentioned.
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1....if you own an individual stock you are gambling because you can't possibly know if the books are legimate.....you can't know what boner the CEO is going to pull.....you can't know if the dividend is safe...............and even if you could know all that ........many stocks go down anyway because the market trades on perception not fundamentals
2...a properly hedged etf gives you the protection of diversification plus hedge protection plus
a dividend so why would you and cramer gamble on individual stocks(can you say mens warehouse?)
3....a huge majority of wall streeters can't beat the market so if you own the market properly hedged you are beating all the fools who gamble on individual stocks
4...when some J&J drug kills somebody remember me telling you that the dividend protection
won't help you very much
5...just track the next 5 cramer stock picks to prove i am right
It is called yield PROTECTION not yield guarantee. Obviously if a stock falls more than the yield, you will lose money and the yield will be nothing but a band-aide for the loses. That said, yield protection would reduce your losses and can swing SMALL loses to breaking even or possibly gains. Sure you can find examples (McDonalds) where over a specific time, the yield was all but worthless given the loss in stock price but I can do the reverse. Right now I am sitting on a 1% loss on my JNJ stock price. Thanks to those dividends though, I am sitting on a 1.75% gain. It isn't a guarantee. No one is saying it is. But it does provide some level of protection. And yes companies can cut or stop paying dividends but that is rare if you go with large, solid companies that have a deep history of offering and/or raising their dividends.
Stop being so dramatic and understand the meaning before you go spouting off your uneducated comments.
so mcdonalds yields 3% per YEAR and it is down 12% in a month and that's called yield protection
by cramer..........cmon there is no santa and there is no such thing as yield protection..........companies cut their dividends without notice
BEWARE THE SHYSTER
furthermore if you owned properly hedged etf's which cramer hates you lost one third what
stocks lost in 2008 and participated in a nice recovery as long as you avoided disaaterous cramer
individual stocks like aa chk,shld,nyx.............the list is too big to post entirely
how is that YIELD PROTECTION working for mcdonalds ?
how did your RIGOR not get you out of mens warehouse before it gapped down 6?
you may get up at 3 AM but that just means you are sleep deprived which may account for your
when oil was 105 he said it was going to 150 and gasoline was going to5 dollars.........
he got his cramericans slaughtered in mens warehouse which gapped down 6 dollars yesterday ...another cramer gap down pump and dump..........today he said amARcuns will
do better with lower oil prices............what a genuis.....amARcuns?
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