Dazed, confused by budget talks, market swings

We come into this session bewildered by fiscal cliff negotiations and betting the market is set up to fall.

By Jim Cramer Nov 30, 2012 9:54AM

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Image Source Black GettyCould it be that the U.S. economy is so smoking hot that we don't need to worry about higher taxes for all? Maybe the defense budget doesn't matter as much because everyone sees the profligate nature of the Pentagon, with its ridiculously expensive fighter planes. Maybe the employment benefits don't mean much because people are working off the books anyway. Maybe, with all the little charities and state programs out there that can make up for the federal dollars, we are wrong to be so fretful. Maybe it's all made up by the media -- and, if we didn't know any better, we'd see the changes as mild and realize the whole thing is overblown.


Look, if you are not wondering about these sorts of things, I think you must be brain-dead. Thursday's half-decent rally, coming in the face of horrendous retail numbers and a lack of progress in the talks, makes us feel that the whole thing doesn't matter. Either that or, after the debt downgrade, the public has just become conditioned to believe the consequences aren't meaningful, or that they will be avoided. Or, at least, they've been made to feel it has nothing to do with the stock market -- no more than how much the now-evident China expansion has to do with the Chinese stock market.

Think about it. In the span of a day, we started by thinking there was definite progress, and then went to thinking there was no progress. Then, by the end of the day we came to this realization: Not only was there no progress, but things have grown worse -- maybe much worse -- with a proposal from the Democrats that basically says, "Taxes are going up and benefits aren't being cut." I mean, Thursday was a day when everyone actually seemed to throw in the towel. President Obama's game plan was very old-fashioned tax-and-spend, and the market lapped it up.


So we come in here Friday, dazed, confused and betting that the market is set up for a fall.


Yet it's very rare that we see a tape that allows you can get off a short like you can here. Perhaps the buyers are propping stocks up; it is the end of the month. Or perhaps they mistakenly believe, now, that the sides have grown farther apart -- that a deal is in the works for the weekend.


I'll say it. It makes no sense to me.




JimCramers face 


Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.



More from TheStreet.com

Nov 30, 2012 11:11PM

Decent advice RF, but more fitting on the Blog...Top Stock...."55 and has 100K to invest for First time in their lives.."


Some discussion going on now or just recently...

Nov 30, 2012 9:42PM
A plan should have a goal, a strategy (the big picture) stop climbing the wall.  Here is what  my research shows me, a high probability that precious metals will be the top performers of a inflation cycle. Have a second phase, educate yourself and be vigilant, so you can identify when this cycle tops out and prepare for the next cycle change. Know yourself, are you a trader or an investor? What is your risk tolerance? Are you young or old? Are you building wealth for your retirement or are you retired looking for safety? You will sleep at night with a plan that you can understand. If the government cuts spending too much, expect deflation have some cash. I don't see this happening, because they spent so much time pumping the stock market up with all the  printing and the subsidized bounce in real estate. I think they will choose inflation over deflation.
Nov 30, 2012 8:42PM

Too many Steve's on the Board anymore...You have to use something different...?


Curious about the Corporate Welfare the last few Years...Have you seen them create many jobs ??


Same with the Rich and Elite...They will not invest in Jobs or America, until forced and they know they have to use the Hoards for some write offs...

If they run off-shore with it, go after the tax if they are Americans....Then kick their azzes out.

Nov 30, 2012 5:07PM
Revised addage:   The only thing we can be sure of is Death, and that taxes will go UP one way or another.
Nov 30, 2012 5:01PM

The fiscal problem could be fixed easily if we had a flat rate tax for each individual and business without any loopholes or deductions.


I know Cramer would not like this as he and his rich friends would not like being taxed or get out of paying taxes.

Nov 30, 2012 4:59PM
This babbling idiot is always dazed and confused judging by the way he picks or puts down stocks. I really think he is in cahoots with the big shots so he can drive up or drive down stocks for his or their benefits.
Nov 30, 2012 4:58PM
Jim, you're an Obama man. Why should you now be surprised that he will raise your taxes but  won't cut spending. He is a disaster.
Nov 30, 2012 4:54PM
"Dazed, confused by budget talks, market swings"

I didn't actually read this article, but I assume it is an autobiography.
Nov 30, 2012 4:51PM


America the largest  DEBTOR NATION.  Does this not make you sad, cringe, lose your mind and pride. ============================================================


No what makes me sad, cringe, lose my mind and pride is when I have to read your boring post. 



Nov 30, 2012 4:44PM
Corporations are combating the almost for sure tax increases they see on the horizon by giving a special one time EXTRA dividend before the end of the year..Good for them and us as shareholders.
Nov 30, 2012 4:37PM
Actually, I meant late summer, 2011.
Nov 30, 2012 4:36PM
And what is it that consumers should be doing about this?  I think we are tired of all the problems, and just don;t care anymore.  This will be a repeat of late summer 2008, at best!  Again I ask, what can I or anyone I know personally do about this?
Nov 30, 2012 4:33PM

Once again corporate profits are at historical levels and the rightwing whacks continue to tell us we need to keep the corporate welfare in place.


Question to all you wingnuts when do you suppose the jobs will be created by your creators? How much more wellfare do they need before they kick in that job creations all you whacks speak of.

Nov 30, 2012 4:32PM
The only people dazed and confused are the ones listening to Cramer's advice, as well as any other of the sell-side pump monkeys that stream through CNBC's financial comedy network.
Nov 30, 2012 4:22PM

I never said they should not get their pensions.I said they should get it at 62 or 65 like the rest of us.This would also limit the double dipping thats rampant.

Nov 30, 2012 4:16PM

next time up


As you can see, debasing the currency to pay for public works, social programs, and war as a pattern throughout history. It always ends badly. I see the stagflation coming, count on it.

Nov 30, 2012 4:07PM
America the largest  DEBTOR NATION.  Does this not make you sad, cringe, lose your mind and pride.  This is who we now are.  Do you think any other country in the world sees us a viable economic partner?  Do you have a friend who has borrowed, overspent and is now forever buried in debt?  This is us and other countries see us the same way you see that friend.  Spoiled, uneducated, unmotivated but most of all prideless and pennyless. .  We now owe more than any nation ever could have imagined in the history of the world and we are worried about the market changing a few percentage points or paying more for taxes we know will never improve a damn thing. . America is now full of beggars users and lilliterates.  Does this make you proud?  And we elected the same  people we wanted to continue spoon feeding us baby formula and lie to us by telling us everything will be okay. Does this picture resonate in anyone out there?
Nov 30, 2012 4:04PM

Rise Above, tax below. It's called INFLATION  the stealth tax.


Number 1 things to do for all people all of the time:  Get our of debt!, Don't get in debt again!, 

Save up lots of money so that you don't have to get in debt again if there is a catastrophe.

Nov 30, 2012 3:45PM

Little less two(2) hours until the close...After hours.(no report)

Asia was exuberant over night...Indices nicely gained.

European Bourses....Floundering, eventually finishing flat.


Oil up around $89 per.bbl.

Gas down in some spots Regionally..

PowerBall winners maybe coming forward in Missouri, News at 6 and Eleven.

U.S. Markets looking like North Sea Icebergs...The Ocean may go Flat by 4 @ the Close.

Obumpa on Happy Trip...While Beener frets and stews.


Retail and REITS up a little or holding their own..

Some oil/gas down. Some energy up.


Gold has been trending down since Thanksgiving....Some miners follow suit.


Gaming....Some upside.

Banks....About flat.

Auto Manufact.....Up a little.

Yum Brands...Big loser in the Restaurant Biz...Forecasts. (PizzaHut, TacoBell, KFC)


More after the close if any big changes...DON'T Expect Much....Time for nap..

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