Why Facebook is too big to succeed

Quarterly reports from LinkedIn and Yelp help clarify the social network giant's lack of focus and purpose.

By Minyanville.com Aug 3, 2012 12:38PM
Image: Couple with laptop (© Daly and Newton/OJO Images/Getty Images)LinkedIn (LNKD) just strengthened its position as the Wall Street darling of social media stocks after the close Thursday, reporting stronger-than-expected revenue and raising its full-year outlook.
 
The company has three revenue streams -- and all of them are looking good. Advertising revenue grew 64% year over year. Revenue from job postings and related recruiting services rose 107%. Premium subscription sales rose 82%.
 
And how is LinkedIn doing on that critical transition to mobile devices? No problem. About 23% of its unique accesses now come through mobile devices, CEO Jeff Weiner said during the earnings call.
 
LinkedIn had already more than doubled its price since its IPO debut in May 2011 -- raising concerns among some analysts that it had gotten way too pricey. But after the close Thursday, it rose nearly 7% more, to top $100 a share.
 
And now, let's check in on The Big Kahuna of social media stocks, The Social Network itself: Facebook (FB).
 
Facebook manages to disappoint even while meeting expectations
Oh, dear. As LinkedIn was preparing to report its consensus-beating results, Facebook was going public with government filings which revealed that 83 million of its accounts, or about 8.7%, are "illegitimate." They're duplicates, or profiles of people's pets, or businesses that look like personal profiles, or profiles created to facilitate spam-bombing, or otherwise "undesirable" accounts.
 
Aw, and I thought Jane Austen, Che Guevara, and Albus Dumbledore really were my friends.
 
To be fair, if 8.7% of Facebook accounts are fake, so are 8.7% of the enrollments in every other social media site that offers an easy, free enrollment process. That's how many jerks and screw-ups there are in the world.
 
Still, when was the last time there was upbeat news from Facebook? Just as Facebook could do no wrong a year ago, now it can do nothing right. Its quarterly results somehow disappointed, even while meeting expectations.
 
Analyst expectations are still upbeat about Facebook for the long term. But why?
 
Just a year ago, Facebook and social media were virtually synonymous, and social media was the vast new advertising and marketing opportunity of the future. It still is, but it looks increasingly unlikely that Facebook will dominate its category as Google (GOOG) has dominated search and search-related advertising.
 
Nobody needs more than one best-of-breed search engine -- not consumers, not advertisers. But it's worth asking whether one social media site can meet the needs of all consumers and all advertisers all the time.
 
Surely there will be many social media sites, and the most successful of them will be intelligently designed and programmed platforms created for a particular purpose, filling a real consumer need.

LinkedIn and Yelp fill needs
Like this week's two darlings among social networking sites. LinkedIn was created to help professionals network. It works on the "Six Degrees of Separation" principle: Each person connects with people they have worked with, and their network grows exponentially from there. Just being there gives members access to recruiters or potential clients. For the more active user, there are job listings, specialized news feeds, and professional discussion groups.
 
Yelp (YELP) was created to fill one of the huge opportunities in locally relevant "content" that traditional local media failed to exploit when they had the chance. It lets consumers rate local businesses they use, so that other locals and travelers can benefit from their experience. Once a local site is fleshed out, it becomes a useful directory of services. It's already in 90 markets, from Australia to the U.K. But it looks pretty easy to replicate, so it can grow fast.
 
In its quarterly report on Wednesday, Yelp reported better-than-expected results, including a near-doubling of local advertising. It specifically cited increased mobile usage for its growth in revenue.
 
Yelp jumped nearly 24% after releasing its results.
 
Like LinkedIn and Yelp, Facebook started with a powerful idea, and a clear purpose. Students at Harvard could post pictures of themselves and brief descriptions of their interests, so that other students at Harvard could look them up. It was dynamic, so its users got in the habit of posting frequent updates on their activities and status. Like all the best Web concepts, it grew effortlessly and organically, until students throughout Boston jumped in, and then students everywhere else wanted their faces on the Facebook.
 
Facebook is now approaching 1 billion active users. It is an infinite number of circles, sharing mostly mundane minutia, and pictures of their kids. And that's pretty terrific, for what it is.
 
But at some point, expectations were raised that Facebook would become the ultimate home page of the Web, the center of everyone's online activity. And that's not going to happen. It just can't be all things to all people all of the time.

More from Minyanville
6Comments
Aug 3, 2012 8:50PM
avatar

hahaha Fakebooks lack of focus and purpose??!! hahaha ahahahahaha!!!! let's see now, it produces NOTHING, there are no stocks or supplies of inventory or anything or nothing, that's cuz IT PRODUCES NOTHING!!! therefore it has no purpose except if ur stupid enough to post ur entire life on a website and then wonder where the hell ur privacy went and any whackjob can find you on top of that, now tell me again how suckerberg could possibly be worth billions when in all reality fakeboos is worth NOTHING!! maybe on paper it's worth billions, but so where the dot.com era websites and when the smoke cleared there was NOTHING!!

 

oh yea, let's not for get the FAKE profiles on FAKEBOOK, all 90millon of 'em!!

Aug 4, 2012 2:03PM
avatar
I don't have a Facebook account and never will. People simply don't need to know every move everyone makes all of the time. All of this constant and continuous communication is damaging to the population as a whole. Find something constructive to do with your lives instead of worrying about how people spend their time.
Aug 4, 2012 3:41AM
avatar

"To be fair, if 8.7% of Facebook accounts are fake, so are 8.7% of the enrollments in every other social media site that offers an easy, free enrollment process. That's how many jerks and screw-ups there are in the world."

 

Unfortunately, there are a lot more than 8.7%.  These are only the highly motivated jerks and screw-ups that take the time to create a fake account.  I think 40% is closer to the real number of jerks and screw-ups...sadly

Aug 5, 2012 11:43AM
avatar
Up to 80% of ads clicks on farcebook my be by bots.  Google facebooks ads bot to read about it.  I see ad revenue declining.  Maybe GM was right.
Aug 5, 2012 10:49PM
avatar

"Analyst expectations are still upbeat about Facebook for the long term. But why?"

 

Um, ever hear the expression, "Put some lipstick on this pig"?

Aug 4, 2012 1:50PM
avatar
Facebook has already succeeded and fulfilled it's mission. Move on.
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

126
126 rated 1
286
286 rated 2
474
474 rated 3
680
680 rated 4
626
626 rated 5
609
609 rated 6
620
620 rated 7
462
462 rated 8
304
304 rated 9
132
132 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
AAPLAPPLE Inc10
BIDUBAIDU Inc10
BXTHE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P10
CELGCELGENE CORP10
FOXATWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX Inc CLASS A10
More

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.