You don't normally see analysts hesitate on Apple (AAPL). Nearly 35 have "strong buy" recommendations on the stock and gush about the company's potential for growth.

That's why Stuart Jeffrey grabbed attention Tuesday with his "neutral" rating. The Nomura analyst started coverage with a $710 target price -- not much higher than the $634.70 Apple traded at Tuesday.

Short term, Jeffrey is actually quite bullish on the stock. He's checked supply in Asia and watched iPhone demand, and he thinks iPhone sales could slightly beat recently lowered expectations for Apple's quarter ending in December, he writes, according to Forbes.

Demand for the iPhone and the as yet unannounced iPad Mini will probably spill over into the first quarter of 2013, he adds, which supports Apple's share price.

So why the "neutral" rating? Mobile growth in developed markets could slow to the single digits starting in 2014, he writes, shifting the growth focus to emerging markets. But that shift could hurt margins across the industry, since emerging markets will need lower-priced (and therefore lower-margin) phones. There won't be as many carrier subsidies in emerging markets, and Google's (GOOG) Android platform will likely dominate in application availability, he adds.

"We thus believe that iPhone gross margins could contract by up to 10 percentage points, and this drives our FY 2014 EPS estimate to 12% below consensus," Jeffrey summarizes.

This is a tough call to make. The industry is very volatile, as Jeffrey acknowledges. But he says that since Apple is driven predominantly by mobile phones, and with all that volatility, there is "little scope for upside, given our single-digit earnings growth forecast beyond 2014."

Apple investors didn't respond too much to Jeffrey's note. Shares fell more than 2% from Monday's close in morning trading but climbed back to within 1% at midday.

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