Apple gets rare 'neutral' rating
A Nomura analyst sees growth starting to slow in 2014 and says the 'pie is almost baked.'
That's why Stuart Jeffrey grabbed attention Tuesday with his "neutral" rating. The Nomura analyst started coverage with a $710 target price -- not much higher than the $634.70 Apple traded at Tuesday.
Short term, Jeffrey is actually quite bullish on the stock. He's checked supply in Asia and watched iPhone demand, and he thinks iPhone sales could slightly beat recently lowered expectations for Apple's quarter ending in December, he writes, according to Forbes.
Demand for the iPhone and the as yet unannounced iPad Mini will probably spill over into the first quarter of 2013, he adds, which supports Apple's share price.
So why the "neutral" rating? Mobile growth in developed markets could slow to the single digits starting in 2014, he writes, shifting the growth focus to emerging markets. But that shift could hurt margins across the industry, since emerging markets will need lower-priced (and therefore lower-margin) phones. There won't be as many carrier subsidies in emerging markets, and Google's (GOOG) Android platform will likely dominate in application availability, he adds.
"We thus believe that iPhone gross margins could contract by up to 10 percentage points, and this drives our FY 2014 EPS estimate to 12% below consensus," Jeffrey summarizes.
This is a tough call to make. The industry is very volatile, as Jeffrey acknowledges. But he says that since Apple is driven predominantly by mobile phones, and with all that volatility, there is "little scope for upside, given our single-digit earnings growth forecast beyond 2014."
Apple investors didn't respond too much to Jeffrey's note. Shares fell more than 2% from Monday's close in morning trading but climbed back to within 1% at midday.
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Apple an the stock mkt will nose dive after Romney is elected. His job one is to build a 'WAR MACHINE'- 2 Trillion $$$ more in your taxes above present military baseline. The present military leaders don't want it but he wants to invade Syria, Iran and back off the Russians as he says ie restart the cold war(?). He is a War Hawk like G.W. He will send your kids to war to died but not his. He like G.W. made sure neither he nor his kids went to war. Ours (the poor and middle income families ) will supply the kids again and again for his ego.
Romney ' WHERE'S THE BEEF' to your 5 point economic plan, all fake.
Romney the numbers don't add up. 8 Trillion means BIG tax increases for middle income.
Romney "47% of the people, I'm not interested in them their victims."
Romney Bain mgt style was corp raider not empathic at all to people.
Romney State run healthcare isn't balanced and fair it's a circus.
Romney Mass. came in 47 of 50 states for job creation, when you were gov'r
Romney "let GM go bankrupt", isn't a plan it's a Bain corp raider tactic
Romney immigrants "let them self deport" ...
Romney "women have there place"....
Romney is King.....of 'FLIP FLOPPERS' is the only reality here.....
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All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.
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