Bed, bath and behind the curve
The home-furnishings chain is only the latest retailer to serve up a disappointing outlook as consumer malaise spreads.
By Igor Greenwald, MoneyShow.com
The list of retailers disappointed by their customers' rediscovered thrift grows ever longer. It's not exactly curtains for consumers yet, but neither are they buying curtains with the expected zeal, as Thursday evening's disappointing forecast from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) confirms.
The home-furnishings chain's stock is on sale Friday after the earnings and same-store sales forecasts fell short of hopes, and the CEO acknowledged on the conference call "the ongoing economic challenges affecting consumers."
These include the painful recent slowdown in hiring and an uptick in firing, alongside minimal income growth and the stock market's uninspiring gyrations.
Add in the European recession, austerity at the state and local level in the U.S., and the looming federal budget cuts and tax increases, and all of a sudden $3.50-a-gallon gasoline doesn't seem like such a huge windfall. Three-fifty a gallon didn't forestall the Great Recession in 2008 and it won't make everything OK this time either.
"Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year," noted the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence and the Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment have faded notably from their springtime highs of late.
Meanwhile, the savings rate is already as low as it's been since late 2007, as consumers dig deeper to make up for the pay raises they haven't been getting.
This is a dangerous climate for retailers who had been hoping the winter shopping spree marked a decisive turning point for the better. The day before Bed Bath & Beyond sprang a leak, it was La-Z-Boy's (LZB) turn to fold after undershooting expectations. On Monday, discount footwear merchant DSW (DSW) and women's fashion chain Body Central (BODY) got crushed after reducing guidance.
Not every report has set off alarms: Pier 1 (PIR) delivered encouraging results and forecasts just last week. But that stock remains 15% below its early April peak, while Tiffany (TIF) is 28% below its March high and Coach (COH) is down 23% in three months.
When Walmart (WMT) and the dollar stores are your retail stars, you know the consumer has issues.
Perhaps the tide will turn once the Fed launches its long-awaited QE3, although that desperate measure is just as likely to result in a markup in the pumps. Or maybe consumers will cheer up after the election when politicians may get around to revoking the austerity measures set to take effect next year.
But, for the moment, consumer discretionary stocks have gone from a source of strength to another hazard zone for investors to avoid. And that's an ominous change not yet fully priced into the market.
More from The Money Show
MORE ON MSN MONEY
DATA PROVIDERS
Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.
Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.
LATEST POSTS
Try as the bears might, they couldn't break US stocks. But investors still face frothy prices and considerable headwinds.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS
- How to sell covered calls - Fidelity Investments
- Savvy year-end tax moves to consider now - Fidelity Investments
- Seven ways to prepare for tax changes
- Five reasons an annual review is crucial - Fidelity Investments
- Take a look at mid caps now - Fidelity Investments
- State of the sector: Health care - Fidelity Investments
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
ABOUT
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.
