By Tom Aspray, MoneyShow.com

As Apple (AAPL) climbs past the $500 level and Wall Street analysts bump their targets for the S&P to 1,400 or 1,450, the signs continue to indicate a market where risk is increasing.

This is the opposite of last fall, when the major firms were lowering their forecasts for both the S&P 500 and U.S. GDP at a rapid rate, as we noted back in September in Is the Majority Wrong?

Though I can eventually see the S&P 500 reaching 1,400 or 1,450 sometime in 2012, I don't expect it in the near future. In looking for stocks to buy, I am not finding many opportunities at present levels; there are currently so many that seem to be quite overextended.

The Nasdaq 100 has been leading the market higher, with the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) up 12.9% so far in 2012. Even though QQQ is still 8% to 9% below its next major Fibonacci price target, it is important to take note of the overbought status of the individual stocks that make up the Nasdaq 100.

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The table above lists Nasdaq 100 stocks that are closest to their weekly Starc+ bands. As I have noted in the past, when a stock is close to its weekly Starc+ band, it is a high-risk time to buy (see Buy, Sell, or Wait: A Way to Decide).

The most overbought stock is Seagate Technology (STX), which is currently 2% above its weekly Starc+ band. In fact, the five most overbought stocks on the list are either at or above their weekly Starc+ bands.

Other stocks listed are also very close to their weekly Starc+ bands. For example, Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) is listed at -2%, which means it is just 2% below its weekly Starc+ band.

We can also see the percentage by which each stock is above or below its 200-day moving average (MA). Seagate Technology (STX), which was featured last week in 3 Stocks You Shouldn't Buy Now, is 69% above its 200-day MA, which currently sits at $15.50. This is consistent with a very overextended condition, and I continue to suggest selling, not buying, when a stock is this overextended.

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Chart Analysis: The PowerShares QQQ Trust shows a rather steep uptrend since the start of the year, but it is still well below its weekly Starc+ band at $64.86. The daily Starc+ band is closer at $63.88.

• The relative performance, or RS analysis, looks strong, as it broke its downtrend (line b) and moved above its weighted moving average (WMA) early in 2012
• The daily on-balance volume (OBV) continues to confirm each new price high; it is well above its rising weighted moving average and shows no signs yet of a top
• Minor support now stands at last Friday’s low of $62.25 with stronger support at $60-$60.80

Akamai Technologies was very strong last week, closing just 2% below its weekly Starc+ band. The major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance from the 2010 high is at $40.70.

• The weekly RS analysis shows a nice bottoming formation and is in a solid uptrend, line d
• The weekly OBV overcame its downtrend, line e, in early February and is well above its rising weighted moving average
• There is now first good support at $35.50-$36.50 and then at $34
• More important weekly chart support, line c, is in the $30.50 area

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