Starbucks partnership to strengthen Green Mountain

The partnership lends GMCR a stronger presence and more customers within the US.

By Trefis Jun 15, 2012 9:53AM
TrefisStarbucks (SBUX) recently announced that it will start selling single serve K-cups coffee pods for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' (GMCR) Keurig brewers beginning June 12. We consider this a positive development for GMCR as it will further strengthen its retail presence within the U.S. and boost its sales.

Starbucks has received an impressive increase for its branded K-cups sales volume, shipping more than 230 million units in just five months since the product launch. Starbucks has been selling its branded K-Cups through other retailers since November. Now it intends to leverage its own retail presence to sell its K-Cups.

According to a company representative, Starbucks will sell K-Cups of one medium and one dark-roast blend in 12-count packs for $11.95. In March, Starbucks announced its plan to launch Verismo, a single-serve espresso brewer, by the end of this year. This announcement led to more than 15% drop in GMCR's stock price. (See our previous post: Starbucks, Wal-Mart Rain on Green Mountain's Parade with Single-Serve Coffee Plans)

It is yet to be seen what would be the likely impact of Starbucks' interest in the single-serve coffee segment. The recent development is a positive for GMCR as the partnership with Starbucks lends it a stronger presence and more customers within the U.S.

However, it is too early to comment on Starbucks' interest in this association. The possibility of Starbucks entering as an independent player in this market and leveraging its presence and customer-base cannot be completely ruled out. It seems the company is testing the waters before entering this market on a larger scale.

We have a price estimate of $45 for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, implying a premium to the current market price.

Green Mountain Stock Break-Up

More from Trefis

Jun 15, 2012 10:12AM

We'll see how "impressive" this news is in September when K-cups sell for much, much less than $11.95 for 12.  I'm sure there are some diehard Starbucks coffee drinkers out there...but I'm also pretty sure they are vastly outnumbered by people who will buy Kroger's K-cups instead. 


We'll soon find out how willing people are to substitute expensive name-brand products in the face of cost-cutting competition. 


To say that GMCR will essentially double to $45 seems like wishful thinking.  Their margins will be hammered if K-cup competition results in lower prices and their current model on selling brewing machines already results in lower margins.  What will change between now & the $45 per share forecast to drive the price that much higher?


Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?


Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.


StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

125 rated 1
267 rated 2
455 rated 3
612 rated 4
682 rated 5
695 rated 6
632 rated 7
472 rated 8
279 rated 9
147 rated 10

Top Picks

TAT&T Inc9



Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.