If you're a gold fan, you might be concerned. Gold (-GC) is down a touch under 5% for the year. And that's not supposed to happen.

In truth, gold moved higher in New York on Friday, settling at $1,592.60 an ounce, up $1.90. But it ended 2012 at $1,675.80.

The weakness isn't limited to physical gold. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) exchange-traded fund is down a touch under 5% this year. So is the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF. They should be since they're designed to track the price of bullion. So far, this year, gold has trailed stocks by a pretty good margin.  The Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) are up 10.6%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX), up 9.3%. It also has trailed crude oil (-CL), cotton and wheat (-ZW).

The picture is actually worse than it looks. Gold hit its 2012 peak of $1,796.50 an ounce on Oct. 4, and is down more than 11% since.

 It's also down about 16% from its all-time high, $1891.90, set in 2011. So are the two ETFs. The Dow and S&P 500, however, are up 6.7% since Oct. 4.

In addition, the Amex Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) is down nearly 20.8% this year. The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Sector Index ($XAU) is down 18.8%. Both indexes track the stocks of gold producers such as Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX).

Newmont is down 14.6% this year. Barrick is off nearly 18%. Freeport-McMoRan is off about 1%, but it's also down 20% since peaking at $42.64 on Sept. 14.

At least four factors are weighing on gold this year:

• The dollar is higher this year, particularly against the yen (+9.5%), the euro (+1.7%) and the British pound (up nearly 8%). The dollar's gains reflect the expectation that the Japanese government wants to reflate its economy, to get it to grow again. That means a lower yen. The strength against the pound and euro is a function of weak economies across most of the continent.
• Stocks are higher and have pulled cash from gold and other speculative vehicles. Like Apple (AAPL). Yes, Apple Its decline since mid-September parallels gold. 
  
• A stronger U.S. economy. You may not believe it, but it is true that housing is gaining strength. Manufacturing is relatively strong, especially motor vehicle manufacturing. Job growth is steady, but expanding.
  
• There are concerns the Chinese economy isn't as strong as many would think or hope.

Plus, gold is often weak at the start of the year.

It is true that gold has moved higher every year, starting in 2001. But gold often drops in the first few months and gains strength as the year moves on.

In 2005, gold fell 5.6% through Feb. 9 but finished up 18.2%. In 2009, the decline was 8.7% before finishing up 24.2% for the year. 

In 2011, gold fell 7.25% before the debt-ceiling battle and downgrade of U.S. debt set off panic buying that pushed the metal to $1,891.80, up 33%. But gold settled back to $1,566.80 by year-end, up 10.2%.

Yes, gold was up 5.8% in 2008, but the price collapsed right along with markets in the financial crash. On Nov. 15, 2008, gold was actually down 15.6% for the year at $704.90. But then it rebounded sharply, ending the year at $883.60, up 5.8%.

My colleague Anthony Mirhaydari believes gold and other metals are about to surge. Seasonality may play a role. There's always a chance of another euro crisis or Middle East shootout. And another debt fight may erupt. But I'm not sure Washington really wants one. Nobody will win.

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