Why are people chastising this market?
They're not revealing their positions, and it's my belief that those who denigrate this rally are either betting against it or sitting it out.
"Did you miss the rally?"
"Do you have a ton of cash?"
"Do you need the market to go down to outperform?"
These are the questions I want answered right now when I hear people denigrate this market. These are the questions that cut to the psyche of an investment professional -- because, right now, many of those individuals you see being interviewed, or whom you might be reading, have missed this market. They are, therefore, of a different mindset than they might otherwise be.
In other words, they need the averages lower, not higher, in order to catch up. Even if they don't like the market, they do have to catch up if they are going to be rewarded as handsomely as they hope to be, with new money, with bigger bonuses, or whatever perks for which they might be striving.
I believe that not only that this rally is hated, but that the people who hate it are either betting against it or sitting it out. So many people came on air Tuesday and backhandedly chastised this market that I've had to figure they are of the cohort that didn't make the money when the money-making was there to be had. What's backhanded? Here's some I heard:
"The market is too extended right now, so I think it is the wrong time to commit capital."
"I would like this market on a 5% pullback."
"I am looking to buy more stocks as the market goes down."
The simple truth is that anyone who follows these dicta has not been able to keep pace -- because the market has been traditionally overextended for ages, and we haven't seen that kind of a pullback. Not only that, but as the market goes higher, a 5% pullback would only bring it back to a level where these people hadn't liked it anyway.
Let's take the consensus case manager. That's someone who says, "I will wait to see what happens with the sequester, and then I will buy, but I will buy small, because I think the Federal Reserve might discontinue its bond-buying and then the rally could fizzle."
My thinking is that this is the same kind of money manager who didn't take advantage of the decline before the fiscal-cliff resolution and had to pay up afterwards. We know, of course, that this was a costly strategy, but as of Tuesday it had still been better than doing nothing.
This kind of money manager is clearly not all in, or has very little conviction, due to fears about the fickle nature of Washington. They fear the Fed minutes. They fear the Thursday employment numbers. They fear the Labor Department nonfarm payrolls. They fear the words of every Fed governor who talks about the bond-buying. They fear all testimony by Fed chief Ben Bernanke. They fear all press conferences by House Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama. For all I know, they fear "Meet the Press" on Sunday.
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You simply cannot invest in a climate of self-imposed fear in the kind of bull market we have now. If you find yourself thinking, "OK, we are fine right now, but just wait until the bloodshed," then you aren't going to take positions with any confidence, and you'll be spooked by every mention of anything involving the Fed. That means you are going to be so defensive, that you'll have much less exposure to stocks and more in cash, which is a license to fall behind in rapid fashion. You will most likely not have participated in the consumer packaged-goods upswing, and you certainly aren't going to be involved in the industrials or the home plays, because both would be hurt by the Fed's actions.
You would most likely be short those sectors if you were a hedge-fund manager.
Consequently, that advice, at least from this kind of person, is tainted or questionable. That's why I want to know your positioning. I know that's a bold interrogatory. But I am unique here. I have to play with an open hand. I feel the sword of this market on my neck every minute, courtesy the public portfolio that is Action Alerts PLUS, and all I can say is that at least you know for certain where I am coming from.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.
More from TheStreet.com
The stock market is a bubble right now about ready to explode.
In 2007 the stock market was over valued at the levels the stock market is hitting now.
The economy is about 40 percent weaker now than then.
What makes anyone think the stock market should be at the levels itis right now???
MARKET CRASH AND BURN later this year.
I remember when the DOW hit like 13,000 a lot of people were saying in a couple of years the DOW should hit 33,000 pretty much they are moving money market accounts into the stock market to steal the money again and will trash the stock market later this year.
Pump and dump that is the game the Wall Street bankers play.
Pump and dump.
AA dow stock of the year at 18 now 9
gold at 1900 now 1600
FB at 36 now 28
AAPL at 700 now 430
GM at 34 now stuck in the 20's
meanwhile the dow index which he hates is at new highs
BEWARE OF THIS HACK
THE CYCLE OF INEVITABILITY
Birth: A civilization is born out of a void. People work hard and gain from their efforts.
Growth: More people come and work hard. Prosperity comes because everyone works hard and makes gains.
Maturity: Pariah come; make laws so there are lawyers, taxes so there are bookkeepers, money so there are bankers and financiers, bureaucracy so there are politicians, paper so there are administrators.
Decline: People get tired of working so lawyers, bookkeepers, bankers, financiers, politicians and administrators can usurp all power and use corruption to suppress the masses into servitude. Civilization crumbles.
Death: The people rise up and destroy all pariahs.
Re-Birth: A new civilization is born out of the void. A “No Pariah” sign is posted. People work hard and enjoy life.
certainly with a buy low, sell high rule book; if this IS a peak, it's not a time to buy. it's time to 'hope" for a serious correction in order to get onto the ride!
but what is the volume of sales? if the common man has only a 401K mutual fund to work with, does "he" and all the masses equate to 50% of the market? 20%? what is that particular buying volume?
or are these peaks coming from the 1%'ers? or institutional buying from other institutions?
Cramer looks out the window to forecast the weather again. Market went up? Cramer predicts market will keep going up until it doesn't. Market went down? Cramer predicts market will continue downward.
Keep up the great work, Jim! The Nobel committee will be calling any day now.
Can this "remarkable" rally continue ?
Yes, for a short time longer as LONG as Dear Leader and henchman put billions into it.
Back that out you have a collapsed market.
It's coming , and soon.
Most of the average, lefty schmucks will be caught holding the bag
You bet we missed this rally because we lost not only
the money that was in the market but also the equity
in our homes.
The vast majority of americans are fighting
for there lives.
They are broke there pensions are gone or in jeopardy.
You guys will have to find some other sucker to buy
so you can sell.
This real economy is in shambles, it will take
years more than you and I have to
return to prosperity.
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