Nokia's valuation ridiculously cheap
Trading at half the value of its total assets, this high-risk play could rebound to $4.50 per share.
By Vivian Lewis, Global Investing
The current share price of Nokia (NOK) corresponds to about half its total assets, a market value of under $11 billion vs. cash and short-term investments at the same level.
For free you get its inventory, accounts receivable, and plant and equipment, plus a portfolio of patents offset by liabilities that are lower than the non-cash positions. In my view, it's a steal.
The Nokia Siemens Networks telephone exchange infrastructure joint venture beat out Alcatel Lucent in landing T-Mobile's coveted US 4G LTE contract, sharing with Ericsson.
Nokia has also launched cheaper mobile phones equipped with games and cameras; one includes dual SIM capacity.
These new phones will use the cloud to smooth internet links to work well for social media. These cost euros 35, about $42 at present exchange rates.
Nokia is lining up app developers for its Lumia Windows-Inside smartphones, starting with fellow-Finn Rovio (of Angry Birds).
Rovio has agreed to create new exclusive games for Lumia cellphones. And in case Rovio doesn't get players hooked, Electronic Arts (EA) will develop different games.
Other apps will come from Groupon, which is developing location data with camera views for massing customers. PayPal, meanwhile, will set up an exclusive Lumia smartphone payments process.
Dodge & Cox manager Diana Strandberg argues for Nokia based on "a wide range of outcomes" because of its "very low valuation" for its research and development, "future earnings potential or lack," its cash flow, and "the value of the patent portfolio."
"We ask ourselves, does management have a sense of urgency?" Strandberg added. " Do they understand the problem and the speed they need to fix it? And Nokia management does."
Strandberg went on, "Do they have other resources they can call on? We would point to their partnership with Microsoft, where they have a deep-pocketed partner contributing financial resources to the joint venture."
Separately, Sprint appears to be following AT&T (T) in supporting the NOK Windows-inside phone. The reasoning is that Apple (AAPL) wants to set up its own competing wireless network rather than merely selling phones.
Overall, I believe the stock is worth north of $4.50 and trades for under $3. In my view, the stock price is completely ridiculous.
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NOK's stock price is due for a huge jump once it releases its quarterly report in July. While some sources project Lumia 900 sale to be around 2M, the actually number will be much higher. Last quarter they also sold 2M windows phones, but that number only included the 710 and 800 series. With the 900's success, 2M is huge underestimate for this current quarter.
Plus in their last quarter report, they took a big hit from some unusual expenses. So long as the unusual expenses don't come back, they'll look much better in this quarter's financial.
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