Netflix's worst nightmare comes true

Amazon has signed a content deal significant enough to challenge Netflix for subscribers. And that's not even the worst of it.

By TheStreet Staff Sep 11, 2012 9:32AM

image100 CorbisBy Richard Saintvilus 

 

I'm now midway through watching the second season of "The Office." In two days, I've been able to watch almost two years of shows.TheStreet.com

 

This would not have been possible had it not been for streaming movie giant Netflix (NFLX). The ease with which the service makes television shows that were old new again is certainly Netflix's best quality to the consumer.

 

For investors, however, the question is how much worse things can get.

 

Retail and tech giant Amazon (AMZN) has just signed a content deal significant enough to challenge Netflix for subscribers. Yet that's not even the worst of it.

 

The deal, announced last week, is with premium TV joint venture Epix, bringing content to Amazon's Prime Instant Video streaming service. Though the terms of the deal were not disclosed, it is said the partnership will bring popular hit movie titles such as "Hunger Games," "Thor" and "Iron Man 2" to Amazon's streaming offerings.

 

What this means is exactly what many Netflix investors had feared would have occurred -- no more exclusivity.

 

What was once originally a five-year deal, of which two were exclusive, has lapsed. Now enters Amazon.

 

But what is Netflix thinking? This continues the streak of yet another misstep for the struggling movie giant, which has seen its stock price erode during the course of the year. Several weeks ago, as the stock traded just above $80 per share, I asked whether the company can stay afloat and survive the unrelenting assaults from Amazon, cable giant Time Warner (TWX) and Coinstar (CSTR) (Redbox).

 

While it may have been able to avoid death by those three, the story changes when one considers Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have TV and potentially movie plans of their own. What are the odds that Netflix will survive a living room revolution unlike anything the market as ever seen?

 

I still maintain that a takeover is its best option. Outside of that, there is no chance Netflix will survive.

 

By having allowed Amazon to forge a deal with Epix, does Netflix truly appreciate the dire situation it's in? It is as if it no longer values its streaming content -- the same reason it opted to ignore its once-popular DVD model. Now it does not appear to want to protect that decision.

 

Even worse, during its second-quarter earnings report, Netflix said that although it expects to remain profitable in the third quarter, it is forecasting a loss for the fourth quarter due to international market expansion.

 

So essentially, the company has, for all intents and purposes, killed off its DVD business, allowing Amazon to chip away at its streaming division by losing exclusivity, but somehow thinks international expansion in Latin America and continental Europe is worth a fourth-quarter loss.

 

It would stand to reason that a change in focus would be the wise decision until Europe gets its act together. At least that would be the option for a smart management team. However, no one has ever accused Netflix of having one.

 

I would stay away from the shares until things get more clear in terms of the company's strategic direction. Until then, there is only one direction the stock will go and that is down -- affirming that things can indeed get worse.

 

More from TheStreet.com

265Comments
Sep 24, 2012 6:26AM
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Netflix isn't what it used to be!  Bring on the competition of Amazon, it's good for business.  Netflix is lacking many  DVD's.  Example: I have 25 movies in my Saved  Queue which I would like to see but sadly they are on the "unknown' delivery  list.  Then there is the first half of the Queue, 14 movies on a "Very Long" wait time.  Yep, a disatisfied long time  customer.  (I'm reitred folks) get off my back 'forget the get a life"  I've been there done my time and enjoying L out of REtirement. For the rest of you youngsters:   Work hard, make a lot of money and pay your taxes.  Life is Grand! 
Sep 23, 2012 1:29PM
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I have Netflix in the winter months only.  I do have to say that their customer service far excells anyone else I have done business with lately.  As far as Amazon being a threat to WalMart...all I can say about that is YAHOO...hate WalMart
Sep 21, 2012 11:50PM
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Wal-Mart is the giant that slew local family owned grocdry stores. Now Amazon threatens to do the same to Wal-Mart, Target, et al. So, Wal Mart, how does it feel to be the roasting weenie, and not the one doing the roasting? Hmmmmm?
Sep 21, 2012 9:16PM
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Hey Netflix lost us when they decided that splitting things up was a good idea!

 

Sep 21, 2012 5:30PM
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In 2000, we bought our first DVD player. Inside, Sony had included a free trial to Netflix. It was a no brainer for us to join --- even though we lived in a major US city, at the time, the video store had only 10 DVDs for rent. (Remember Videos? Be kind, rewind? ) Over the years, Netflix has distinguished itself by providing a good service for a reasonable price. They have committed themselves to developing cutting edge delivery for those of us who want to stream, while maintaining their commitment to those who prefer DVDs -- in the face of increasingly expensive postal costs and shifting agreements with the movie industry (who must pay residuals to actors...get it?) Most of the negative comments made in response to this article are ridiculous -- made by people who want something for nothing. What a great value Netflix is - you can't even buy popcorn and a coke for $8. So, to our friends at Netflix...ignore this stupid article and the comments of these pathetic whiners'. And, please, hurry up and get to Europe. (we live in France now). We are all waiting for you...
Sep 21, 2012 5:27PM
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 Sounds like another of MSNs the sky is falling stories .
Sep 20, 2012 1:19PM
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I'm glad some people out there get to watch movies and TV.  I work full time, have an hour commute, have to come home to make dinner, do chores, help kids with homework, keep the hubby happy and if there was any time left for TV I would have to fight the rest of the family for it.    

 

Turn off the tube people.  Get outside, read a book, spend time with your kids.

It's a good thing I have a lunch hour so I can keep up with all of these important issues.

 

All kidding aside, enjoy your shows.  You will be me someday :-)

Sep 20, 2012 9:11AM
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Netflix was an ingenious business plan...and until they got greedy and DOUBLED their fees, they were doing fine...now they are in decline.

Sep 20, 2012 5:41AM
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I love netlixs.   We canceled cable tv because the kids used netflix on the wii more than they ever wanted to watch cable.   The kids pull up a show and an episode takes 20 mins.   100 of phineas and ferb , diego, xmen and they even have all the old woody woodpeckers and strawberry shortcakes.   Chad and i watch movies and merlin, the universe.   we love it.   never have a problem loading but we have a great internet connection and it works better on the wii than xbox.   NEVER have had an experience where you had to pay something more than 7 per month and I bet we use more content than most families  (4 kids different likes and ages and teenagers that hang out at our house)
Sep 19, 2012 9:35PM
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I had Netflix previously and was very disatisfied the system was poorly managed so I showed them to the curb. Verizon totally sucks and is expensive and their so called "Bundle Deals" are a hoax , they treat their customers like crap. I have been using Redbox and the Cost and customer service is Great. I reccomend trying them! 
Sep 19, 2012 4:34PM
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I know alot of people that have Netflix thru WII or Rockus because up here in VT the Satalite companies are just too expensive... it is cheaper to have internet and Netflix... I hope they don't go belly up.. then what will we do???
Sep 14, 2012 6:29PM
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Per response, every time I go online to que, it tells me not for my plan... I didn't even know there were other plans... and they shouldn't costs anymore anyway... maybe I'll just quit it and go redbox..


Sep 12, 2012 4:24PM
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They should have listened when so many of us, last year, tried to get them to stop their march on the road to destruction.
Sep 12, 2012 12:44PM
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This is great! Isn't this what the free market is all about? Two giants competting to provide a cheaper, better service for its customers? I just wish there were more options than just Netflix and Amazon...let them go at it and drive down prices. Now if prices don't go down let them compete for the best service and the most content. Either way I win...
Sep 11, 2012 9:18PM
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 What doom and gloom you predict for Netflix.  If there is room for Apple, Microsoft, and Google to compete, there is room for Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, and any other new innovator to compete.  I have both Netflix and Amazon, and had Hulu.  It's very easy to navigate streaming on Netflix and Amazon.  I use Netflix DVD's also, primarily because my husband and I can get the excellent British mysteries on DVD's when we can't get them on streaming.  Usually, Amazon charges for most of their streaming movies even though I have Amazon Prime.  With Netflix, unlimited free streaming  is available in my monthly bill.  Netflix has most of the mysteries and movies I want, except for the latest movies.  Amazon doesn't have them either, but maybe that will change.  I also have excellent service from Netflix whenever I have trouble.  And I certainly don't watch the same T.V. or cable station every night.  There are many of them to choose from as well as "On Demand" on Comcast.  I wouldn't sell my stock in Netflix yet (if I had any).  There is no reason that Netflix won't continue to flourish.  Shame on you for such doom and gloom.
Sep 11, 2012 7:28PM
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Interesting article but deals only with pricing and selection. I believe the biggest issue with the Netflix model is the USPS. Reduced service and PO closures jeopardize the mail portion of the model.
Sep 11, 2012 7:24PM
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There are a lot of Netflix employees and shareholders posting and marking down on here.
Sep 11, 2012 7:13PM
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This article is as big a joke as Hulu's and Amazons content offerings are. Combined!
Sep 11, 2012 7:00PM
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Is it bad that I'm glad to see tht Netflix is having a hard time. I bought my membership with them almost immediately when they came on the market. Since then they've done rate increases, split services to charge even more money, and even tried to make the a separate web-site to totally mess everything up. I cancelled my service when they split everything and I'll never go back, I don't miss them at all.
Sep 11, 2012 6:59PM
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I was with them since 2003 and cancelled the day the basically told us long time subscribers of DVD and Streaming to bend over and take it.

Catch-back's a mother as Amazon and Apple are now telling Netflix to bend over.

How's it feel Hastings?

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