Why you shouldn't trust the jobs report
It's correct to be suspicious of the employment figures, but not because of the false suspicions that come from critics of the Obama administration.
The monthly jobs report tends to engender a lot of conspiracy theories.
It's correct to be suspicious of the employment figures, but not because of the false suspicions that come from critics of the Obama administration. This is about statistics and monthly hiring data that have a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000 jobs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that payrolls increased by 165,000 in April, as the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 7.5 percent. These are estimates. And as demonstrated by the rest of the government report, they tend to get substantially revised.
The revisions in the report overhaul the entire narrative of the U.S. economy. When it was announced almost a month ago that the economy added a mere 88,000 jobs in March -- not enough to match population growth -- the story quickly became that the economy was starting to shudder from the end of the payroll tax holiday and the start of the sequestration cuts.
After all, the data backed this up.
This story no longer holds.
The BLS amended its figures for March and February, locating 114,000 additional jobs in those previous two months. As a result, the March disappointment becomes a somewhat more satisfactory 138,000 new jobs, while February becomes an explosive increase of 332,000, the highest monthly increase since May, 2010.
Michael Strain, a research fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, summarized the situation on Twitter: "Great news on revisions, good report all around. Recovery steady, but too slow."
Josh Boak is the Deputy DC Bureau Chief at The Fiscal Times.
More from The Fiscal Times
- Playing Politics with Job Numbers Kills the Recovery
- April Jobs Report Eases Fears of a Spring Swoon
- Not Part of the Recovery: High School Graduates
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Obama is a genius.
Step 1. Ram obamacare down our throats.
Step 2. Because of obamacare, force employers to cut workers hours by 1/3 to avoid obamacare fines and costs.
Step 3. These employers hire extra part-timers to make up for the former full-time to part-time demotions. Unemployment magically goes down with purely part-time workers.
Step 4. Force welfare like min wage, foodstamps, fake disability, section 8 to keep these people happy, fat, dumb and voting liberal. People with morals and aren't foodstamper trash that wont take handouts for a vote will get a 2nd job, increasing the new jobs.
Step 5 Repeat until the money is all gone and the low information voter stories of gun laws or gay marriage no longer work.
Step 6. Retire with millions and play golf all day with the money of morons that's supported you.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Too bad the numbers for March and April are still 75,000 short of the number to maintain a constant level of employment.
The "recovery" is likely to stall out when increased economic activity leads to inflation which will increase interest rates.
Obama now has Three secret machines hidden under the bed.
One controls gas prices.
The Second prints money day and night.
Now a third has been added to manipulate all govt statistics.
The secret is out. That does it...vote Obama out in 2016 !!!
if you like obama you probably have a low iq you should heve it checked your one of those 47% ers its a shame the black people stand behind him because of color you are the racist of this countryif your one of those people this guy isnt presidential grade human hes a community organizer and a crooked chicago lawyer just llike jesse jackson jr
The numbers lie. Period. The BLS is a joke. A very, very, very bad joke. All revisions to these made-up numbers is only to make a better lie so the government can look better.
The jobs numbers don't count the number of people that have stopped looking for work. The jobs numbers don't count the number of people that have dropped out of the workforce all together. The numbers don't count the number of people working only part time. The numbers don't count the number of people that are working multiple part-time jobs just to get by. The numbers don't even take into account population growth, and the number of jobs that have to be added to the economy just to keep up.
The numbers only count those with jobs. The numbers don't care what kind of jobs makes up these made up jobs numbers.
The truth is that participation in the workforce significantly lags behind those not a part of workforce. The numbers are biased for the government (both parties), for the monied elites, for the corporate oligarchs, and especially for Wall Street who has no shame whatsoever.
The truth is that there has been no recovery. The truth is that the tens of millions of American Middle Class jobs that have been out-sourced will never be coming back. And that once the unemployment benefits runout Americans who still are not employed will die by the tens of millions and there will be no government chart to measure that.
Of course the numbers lie. The whole system is a disgrace to humanity.
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Jobs numbers expected later this week will shed more light on the economy. 'The Fed has to be delighted,' one economist says.
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