The risk-on complex is moving higher -- save currencies -- after Congress kicked the can on the fiscal cliff at the cost of the House Republican leadership. 

The deal, which maintains the Bush tax cuts for incomes under $400,000 to 450,000 (but ends payroll tax cuts) and delays the sequester spending cuts by two months, will add $4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office and will subtract 1% from GDP growth this year.

This is exactly the kind of punt on the deficit that the credit agencies have been warning about, and it sets the stage for an even uglier fight over the Treasury's borrowing limit in the weeks to come.

The unresolved nature of the debate, along with a looming Q4 earnings season likely to be disappointing, new recessions in Europe and Japan, and shaky consumer and business confidence, and by all indications, the two-day market blast may very well be as good as it gets for the bulls this year.

For one, as the charts below show, the market is tracing out a pattern very similar to the lead up to the August 2011 market meltdown. Lots of stop running volatility, ups and downs before the crash started. This is the nature of the computer-driven trading reality as real, human participation continues to diminish.

There are other reasons for skepticism.

Breadth suggests the recent surge is being driven by a narrow subset of the market. That's a sign of weakness, like a house built on a shaky foundation. While the NYSE Composite has pushed above its September highs, on Friday the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-day moving average was just 69% vs. 85% back in September.

And since the fiscal cliff deal was passed with more Democratic votes than Republican ones in the House, it will likely mark the end of House Speaker Boehner's run as President Obama's legislative opponent. His second in command, House Majority Leader Cantor, voted no on the deal and is expected to challenge Boehner on Thursday when the House selects its new leadership.

Cantor is one of the self-identified "Young Guns" in the Republican House and will be a more aggressive challenger on issues of spending and taxes. Obama has already expressed his desire to see the sequester spending cuts offset with a combination of tax hikes (via deduction limits) and spending cuts.

It's hard to see Republicans giving any more on taxes now without deep spending cuts and entitlement reforms. That will be the point of contention that makes the debt ceiling fight so much rougher than the fiscal cliff. 

Plus, the optics of the debate have shifted in favor of Republicans. It's not longer middle class vs. the rich. They've already raised taxes on the wealthy. Now, it becomes about spending vs. debt -- a firmer ground for fiscal conservatives to make a stand on.

So, if you thought the fiscal cliff debate was harrowing, just wait. Instead of the cost of failure being tax increases for everyone, the cost of failure now is a default by the U.S. Treasury. And if Congress kicks the can again and doesn't stop the medium-term rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, the rating agencies, by their own commitments, will start issuing downgrades. 

By adding the sequester to the to-do list, the task has been made even more difficult.
Gap stock market surges like the one we're seeing today often market topping events. With volatility, market, and political risk so high, for most conservative investors, I continue to recommend moving to cash. A little upside could be had by adding exposure to the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP), with the greenback poised to move higher once today's ebullience fades.

A more leveraged play on the same idea would be the ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO).

 
Disclosure: Anthony has recommended EUO to his clients.

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