Will central banks' retreat help?

Around the world, central banks are dragging out or canceling interest-rate increases. The effect, however, is unclear.

By Jim J. Jubak Aug 11, 2011 3:52PM
Jim JubakThe combination of slower economic growth and a global stock market rout are enough to change the strategies of central banks around the world.

Already.

The almost uniform global response from central banks has been to drag out or cancel interest-rate increases that were in the works. In general that will help stock markets -- but how much they help an individual market depends on how convinced investors were that the central bank was serious about hiking rates in the first place.

For example, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has already told the market not to expect higher benchmark interest rates until 2013. Investors who have watched the gradual slowdown of the U.S. economy had already decided that the Fed wouldn’t move in 2011, as had seemed likely earlier in the year.

With investors already pushing their expectations of any rate increase from late 2011 to early 2012, the Fed had to move the goal posts dramatically -- into 2013 -- to have any effect.

Good news for all those procrastinators who now have more time to lock up a low mortgage rate. Bad news for savers who are facing another year of living with sometimes-negative short-term yields and savings accounts paying as close to nothing as matters.

Some good news for stocks in that -- although it’s not clear that lower interest rates make stocks that much more desirable when growth is slowing.

In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank is sticking -- verbally -- to its policy of raising interest rates once or twice more this year. But with Spain and Italy wobbling, the market is starting to assume that any actual interest rate increases are on hold.

What European bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has done most effectively in his last year in office is impress the financial markets that the bank sets policy at the whim of politicians and markets. That will put big pressure on Trichet’s successor to rebuild the market’s belief in the credibility of the bank.

I think you can count on the bank to adopt a more Fed-like communications policy to explain why it is doing what it is doing -- and to raise interest rates in a big surprise move as soon as the European Financial Stability Facility is in place to do the stuff that the bank doesn’t want to be seen as doing. (Like buying sovereign debt in the markets.)

Look for that surprise in as little as a few weeks, or as long as a month or two. A resumption of the European Central Bank’s interest-rate increases will strengthen the euro against the U.S. dollar and send commodity prices higher. (Commodities tend to be priced in dollars, so they rise in price as the dollar falls.)

As the case of Australia indicates, when a central bank has a credible record of raising interest rates to fight inflation, the prospect that global turmoil will put the bank on pause can really boost stocks.

It’s been hard to tell in the midst of the global stock-market rout recently, but the Australian stock market has been moving up strongly on announcements from the Australian central bank that rate increases are likely to be postponed while the global economy is so uncertain.

The two most interesting cases now, however, are the People’s Bank of China and the Banco Central do Brasil.

The People’s Bank may have been nearing an end to its interest-rate cycle anyway, with inflation -- perhaps -- at a peak of 6.5% in July. But a global economic slowdown that will hurt China’s exports is enough to put China’s interest-rate hikes on hold several months early.

Given how fearful Chinese investors have been of central-bank policy -- and given how popular trying to game central-bank policy is with Chinese traders -- I’d expect the global economic slowdown to be a big plus for shares of

China’s domestically oriented companies.

The Banco Central do Brasil has been less successful than the People’s Bank in bringing Brazil’s official rate of inflation under control, largely because Brazil’s currency (the real) has appreciated against the dollar, resulting in a huge flood of hot money into the country. (China’s yuan is, in contrast, tied in price to the U.S. dollar, with a floating peg.)

Brazil’s high interest rates -- the benchmark Selic rate is over 12% -- aren’t likely to result in much relief for Brazil, even if the global economy slows. Money will continue to flow into the country, driving up prices.

At the same time, Brazil seems to be suffering an actual bout of wage inflation as a result of a labor shortage in some sectors of the economy and a bloated state sector. Nonetheless, a pause by the Banco Central, which I expect, would bring needed relief to the banking sector, where higher interest rates have pushed an increasing number of consumers toward delinquency on their loans or credit cards.

As with China, in Brazil I’d look at domestically oriented companies, rather than the shares of exporters.

All these thoughts are early-stage speculation. The global crisis of confidence and the economic slowdown still have a ways to run before we know their full scope.

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here. 

3Comments
Aug 11, 2011 6:56PM
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with the current rules in oil speculating they have the consumer paying futures prices for gas based on EXPECTATIONS. but raising the price before the actual recovery takes place  kills those very EXPECTATIONS. so no economic recovery is posible because it will be killed by futures expectations. as soon as the economy shows an uptick out come the speculators to shut it down. this year they removed the entire bush tax cut extention from consumers wallets with a sustained overpriced gas at 40% above the actual supply demand fundemental. tell me how this is fair to let one industry destroy the entire economy just based on rules?
Aug 11, 2011 6:44PM
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theres only one thing they can do Stop speculating oil and remove the 40% over supply demand fundemental preimum consumers are paying for gas
Aug 11, 2011 6:01PM
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Hot "Some good news for stocks in that -- although it’s not clear that lower interest rates make stocks that much more desirable when growth is slowing." It's been pretty easy to beef up a portfolio yielding 6% using Annaly, ATT,  Intel, Hudson Bank, GE and  Microsoft over the last two weeks especially since REIT took a beating prior to Fed's announcement due to rate concerns. At 6% is put some floor un P/S and it's safer to ride it out than losing cash in the bank due to expenses and currency devaluation.
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