The upside of higher oil prices

Crude and gas stocks are breaking into a new uptrend on a mix of hope and worry.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Jul 19, 2012 2:10PM

While the overall market oscillates slowly higher out of its early June low, there's plenty of action if you know where to look. Commodities in particular have been red hot, with crude oil, which dipped below $78 a barrel a few times last month, closing in on $93 a barrel.

 

A combination of Middle East tensions, a trough in economic data disappointments and hopes of new economic stimulus has pushed crude oil into a solid new uptrend for the first time since February. Energy stocks are following close behind, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) attacking its 200-day moving average. Here's why and how to participate.

 

Post continues below.


 

There is plenty to worry energy traders in the Middle East as what's developed into a Syrian civil war descends on the capital, Damascus, while the U.S. Navy aggressively positions itself in the region to head off any attempts by the Iranian mullahs -- angry over strict economic sanctions and a U.S.-led oil embargo -- to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which roughly 40% of seaborne crude flows.

 

 

According to the folks at Stratfor there are at least three Nimitz-class aircraft carriers and a big-deck helicopter carrier in the region. Moreover, one carrier will deploy four months early and shift its destination to the Middle East, from which the ship returned just a few months ago. That's a lot of firepower in one place.

 

As for Syria, Defense Secretary Leon Penetta said Wednesday that the situation there is "spiraling out of control" after a suicide bomber attacked a key security building in the heart of Damascus, killing the Syrian defense minister. Also, two top generals defected overnight Tuesday into Turkey.

 

The combination of all this is pushing prices higher on supply disruption concerns.

 

 

But there is also the fact that the economy, while still very weak, has at least stopped disappointing Wall Street analysts so badly. You can see this in the chart of the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index shown in the chart above. The index has stabilized above the lows of 2011 as interest rates (the blue line) hit new lows. Cheaper credit, and any new Fed stimulus, will bolster growth in the months to come before the U.S. faces tax hikes and spending cuts worth nearly 5% of GDP later this year.

 

Trading update

All of this is powering the energy sector up and out of a multimonth consolidation range, with oil services stocks leading the way. I'm adding broad exposure to the Edge Letter Sample Portfolio via the Market Vector Oil Services (OIH). In addition, I'm adding a few individual picks as well: Flotek Industries (FTK) and Lufkin Industries (LUFK).

 

 

I am also closing a number of older positions. I am booking profits in Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) and Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), which gained 32% and 25% since I added them in mid-June. I am also closing my financial positions as that sector is beginning to lose its head of steam. Synovus Financial (SNV) gained 6% since I added it on June 27.

 

Disclosure: Anthony has recommended OIH, FTK, and LUFK to his newsletter subscribers.

 

 

Check out Anthony's investment advisory service The Edge. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click here to sign up. Contact Anthony at anthony@edgeletter.c​om and follow him on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.

23Comments
Jul 19, 2012 2:30PM
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In part, I blame a lot of the speculators for the high price at the pump that is killing families budgets and contributing to the reduction of disposable income which is available to them....
Jul 19, 2012 2:37PM
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"Cheaper credit, and any new Fed stimulus, will bolster growth in the months to come before the U.S. "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts worth nearly 5% of GDP hits later this year."

 

So let me say this another way speculators are trying to get every dime they can out of us now before the **** really hits the fan at the end of year.  There will be no growth just artifical wealth created by a  worthless over printed dollar.  Printing money does not supply more money it debases the current supply of "digital monopoly money".

Jul 19, 2012 3:08PM
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So killing 2/3 or your economic engine (consumers) with higher prices at the pump so that a small percentage of SCUMBAGS can profit in the commodities market makes sense then we will continue to limp along and stifle any type of recovery. Wallets will be closing, layoffs have edged higher and its now all for Wall St.

 

Just great!

Jul 19, 2012 3:23PM
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I still do not see the upside to higher oil prices. Higher crude prices have a ripple effect on every aspect of the economy. The higher oil climbs the more tight fisted the American Consumer becomes. This is never a good thing.
Jul 19, 2012 3:20PM
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There is no upside to higher oil prices.  It is just greedy oil companies milking the public of every dime they can get.  High gas prices effects us all in many ways and the Government needs to do something about it.  It is the only retail commodity that adjusts it prices on a regular basis with any excuse they can think of.  They need to be controlled.
Jul 19, 2012 4:16PM
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I liked you other article better - about how Wall Street is ruining America. It is hard to believe even for me but what we considered the engine of our economy is currently the biggest threat to our way of life. 
Jul 19, 2012 4:34PM
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The only people seeing an upside to higher oil prices are oil companies making record profits and stock market guys making a killing.  Those of us who are struggling living check to check aren't seeing any upside to it.  Combine climbing oil prices with drought conditions and not only are we going to be paying more to run our cars, but food prices are going to head through the roof (not like they were low to begin with).  Everything people have to have keeps going up in price but peoples pay doesn't...that at best doesn't increase nearly enough to cover the extra costs of gas, food, health care each year and at worst disappears all together...so year after year regular people go a little more (or a lot) into the hole financially.  I don't see the election this year making any difference...neither party seems capable of doing anything to fix the situation.  They are to busy arguing and postering for the next election to actually worry about governing the country.   
Jul 19, 2012 8:08PM
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If you have a (green) business,, you didn't get there on your own..........   That would have been a correct statement since it would be the taxpayers who did this for you...  Just saying..
Jul 19, 2012 6:07PM
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How long has the Syria confict been going on? I believe there have been many defections, not just the two generals crossing the border into Turkey. Having said that... Mr. Mirhaydari believes... "The combination of all this is pushing prices higher on supply disruption concerns". Tell us something new. Everytime speculators cry wolf, that's a reason to push up oil prices?? Gives us a break, we're not as dumb as you look.
Jul 19, 2012 5:49PM
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Anthony... In the words of my Favorite T.V doctor house "YOUR AN IDIOT".  Nothing good comes out of higher gas prices other than a select few make a ton of money while the rest of us suffer.  Watch the stock market dive again when oil hits 100+ dollars a barrel, and you will say hang on to your wallets because the end is near, because people are spending less (because we have to spend more just to go to work and back), unemployment goes up (because companies spend more to make and ship their product and since people cant afford to buy their product, they stop hiring and start laying off their employees) and the list goes on and on.  Again I reaffirm my saying earlier YOUR AN IDIOT, please dont try and explain how higher oil prices are a good thing when i make decent money and I live paycheck to paycheck because i spend more money than I should to fill up my fuel tank (and I do drive a car that gets 30+MPG)......
Jul 19, 2012 7:11PM
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Who writes this article Obama or someone who failed economics 101. oh sorry same thing.
Jul 19, 2012 6:40PM
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There is no upside to higher oil prices.  Who benefits?  Big oil and the speculators.

 

Jul 19, 2012 8:31PM
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Propaganda.

It's MSN's main focus these days.

Jul 19, 2012 6:55PM
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MSN must have this fool just to agitate the people who read this crap. High oil prices have no

upside for 99.8% of the population.

Jul 19, 2012 7:10PM
Jul 22, 2012 12:56PM
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One thing that I like about this fellow Anthony is that he is universally wrong about everything. Betting against him is basically a sure thing.
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The guys saying they can't see an upside are saying so because they do not know or see what is in their 401Ks and other Mutual Fund retirement plans.   The people bitching the loudest wouldn't be, if they knew just what their pensions were positioned into.  

 

It hurts now, but they will appreciated the upside on the other end.  

 

Most people could afford a 10 dollar bill a week to put into an oil stock.  They can purchase shares directly from some companies each week and allow the dividends to be reinvested which by the time they retire would surprise them as to how much they had accumulated. Without even missing the 10 bucks each week.   

 

By learning to pay themselves first, maybe by just eliminating 10 sodas or couple of beers a week, or smoke one pack of cigarettes less they can have a nice nest egg and see the upside. 

 

Easy money to be had in the stock market.

Jul 20, 2012 2:45AM
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Anyone that can write an article with the upside of SPECULATED AND MANIPULATED BULL$HIT which is taking food out of the mouths of working people is one more PATHETIC ****!!! You are obviously a spoiled a$$ rich kid that has never worked a day in your life.
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