Boeing projects significant industry growth

Can the aircraft maker accurately project demand 20 years out?

By Melly Alazraki Feb 13, 2012 5:04PM

Image: Airline (© Christie & Cole/Corbis)Boeing (BA) executives recently issued a very long-term forecast for the global aviation industry. For any other industry, a two-decade projection might almost seem silly, but Boeing's business is also a long-term one, where a product can take years to develop, test and manufacture -- and being well prepared is crucial.


The maker of the 787 Dreamliner is projecting demand of 33,500 planes worldwide by the year 2030, MarketWatch reported. The market value of these crafts is about $4 trillion -- that's right, trillion. And Boeing is gearing up to take its share of the projected demand.

The force behind this growth is the Asia-Pacific region. China and India, home to some of the fastest-growing economies, are also among the fastest-growing aviation markets. Boeing estimates that Asia-Pacific air traffic will grow by 6.7% per year over the next 20 years, the BBC reports. And carriers from the region are likely to need 11,450 new planes, worth $1.5 trillion over the same period, for both the air cargo and passenger markets.

While 40% of the demand will be for replacing old planes, the rest will result from growth. Boeing's share of that, if indeed this growth materializes, will be considerable even as competition from other manufacturers intensifies.

Meanwhile, Boeing is not only stepping up production, but it's also working on a bigger 787 Dreamliner -- yes, the same Dreamliner that has had a long series of glitches, pre- and post production. Just over the weekend, the AP reported Boeing is "frustrated" with those glitches.

The Dreamliner, a light-weight, fuel-efficient, carbon-composite aircraft, was launched three years late, causing many carriers to revise route plans and even order other planes to fill the gap. Boeing is in negotiations with airlines for compensation over the delays. Air India just increased its demands for compensation from $840 million to about $1 billion, Bloomberg reported. Of the 27 planes it ordered, Air India may receive the first this month.

Meanwhile, Boeing is also trying to improve its best-selling model, the single-aisle 737. The new version, the 737 Max, for which the company received 1,000 orders from 15 customers, is entering the next stage of testing. The goal is to have the more fuel-efficient Max ready for delivery by early 2017 -- in time to take advantage of these long-term projections. Boeing estimates a 7% growth for short-haul flights in the Asia-Pacific region, with demand for almost 24,000 single-aisle airplanes.

In 2011, Boeing's revenue was $68.74 billion, up 7% from $64.31 billion in 2010. The company also managed to expand margins and grow income by 21%. Boeing shares, meanwhile, rose about 13% over that time, outpacing major indices, but significantly underperforming rival Airbus.

These kind of long-term projections, while crucial for companies, can still sound very much out there. Companies need to account for more than just economic changes, but scientific ones as well. And let's not forget the resource crunch the world is experiencing. Just look at how Detroit car companies missed the mark years ago when they should have seen the signs.


And with the still unsure state of the global economy, as countries such as Greece are going up in flames, one can't help but feel these predictions are just as likely to happen as not.

0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

127
127 rated 1
269
269 rated 2
463
463 rated 3
588
588 rated 4
658
658 rated 5
616
616 rated 6
643
643 rated 7
431
431 rated 8
263
263 rated 9
138
138 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
COPConocoPhillips10
NWSNews Ord Shs Class B10
YHOOYahoo! Inc10
TJXTJX Companies Inc9
AMXAmerica Movil ADR Rep 20 Ord Shs Series L9
More

LATEST POSTS

Scary story: the 2013 market looks like 1987

All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.

Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.