Why Moody's 15 bank downgrades matter

Ratings cuts can cost global banks big money. But regional banks could find opportunity in the fallout.

By Jim J. Jubak Jun 21, 2012 6:19PM
Thursday's downgrade of 15 big global banks is just the latest stop on Moody's Investor Service's world tour of the financial sector. 

In February, Moody's announced it would review the credit ratings of 17 global investment banks. On May 14, it downgraded the credit ratings of Italian banks UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY). On May 18 it downgraded 16 Spanish banks, including Banco Santander (SAN). June 6 brought downgrades to seven German and three Austrian banks.

Thursday, Moody’s downgraded Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Societe Generale, and UBS. (Moody’s had already downgraded Macquarie Group and Nomura Holdings on March 15.)

Bank stocks were hammered in anticipation of the downgrades. For example, shares of Bank of America (BAC) fell 3.93%, shares of HSBC (HBC) declined by 2.46%, and shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropped 2.58%. The drop in bank shares helped power Thursday’s 2.23% fall in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index.

Why do the downgrades matter? Because they costs banks money.

For example, before the Moody's announcement, Morgan Stanley (MS) estimated that a three-notch downgrade to Baa2 would force the bank to put up more collateral for about 8% of its derivatives contracts. That could have cost the company somewhere between $868 million and $7.2 billion in additional collateral and termination payments, according to filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission. As for the other banks, a one-notch downgrade for Bank of America could mean the bank has to put up an additional $2.7 billion in collateral. A two-notch downgrade for Citigroup (C) could cost the bank an additional $4.7 billion in collateral. A two- notch downgrade to Goldman Sachs (GS) could cost $2.2 billion in additional collateral.

Of the 15 banks in the list Thursday, Moody's gave a three-notch downgrade to just one, Credit Suisse. Morgan Stanley, which had been expected to get a three-notch downgrade, was downgraded by just two notches. (The stock rallied in afterhours trading by 3.6%)

Ten banks got two-notch downgrades, including JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup.

The opportunity from all this may lie in the shares of the bigger regional banks such as U.S. Bancorp (USB), PNC Financial Services (PNC) and BB&T (BBT). Those stocks were hit Thursday in sympathy with the big global investment banks -- PNC Financial fell 2.04%, for example -- but the big regionals don’t have the complex trading and derivative operations that are hurting the global investment banks, and they look like they're taking market share in such bread-and-butter bank business as commercial lending. (U.S. Bancorp is a member of my Jubak’s Picks portfolio.)

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did own shares of Banco Santander and U.S. Bancorp as of the end of March. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here
313Comments
Jun 28, 2012 12:12AM
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the world economy will fall eventually not wall st not the democrat or the republican can save it this global system is not working anymore thanks for nothing to Reagan and his Anglo women Thatcher  that bring there brilliant idea to the entire world it is a time for our self to drop the ideas of other nations that looking for there own interest and not our.  we are bright peoples but we should know one thing if we don't going to solve our economic problem we will fall to poverty that will take many years that the people will not be able to take it  and the federation will not be able to function any more. that can split the nation in to 50 independent states 
Jun 24, 2012 1:21AM
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Nobody really cares what Moody's thinks.  Where was Moody's just prior to the Mortgage Meltdown?
Jun 22, 2012 12:38PM
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Well as far as Bank of America,it could not have happened to a company more deserving,a bunch of crooks,good I hope they get bought out a someone else! THEY ARE SCUM!
Jun 22, 2012 11:29AM
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Gonna have to go over that monthly bank statement with a magnifying glass to look for any new fees.

 

 

Jun 22, 2012 11:02AM
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I'd be more inclined to listen to what EganJones has to say then Moody's, S&P, Fitch, etc. The latter three are in the hip pockets of the banking cartel and are timid about bitting the hand that feeds them.
Jun 22, 2012 9:08AM
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The banks should have to keep more money in reserve, and it should come from the CEO's pay who make millions.  Then we will not have to bail out there deriative, mortgage and ponzie shemes that brought down the world.  Their should be more regulation because they cannot keep themselves honest so it has to be done for them.

 

And OMGosh, this started long before Obama even took office.  He got stock with this disaster and I hope he regulates the hell out of "them".  Cause if the GOP has it's way the only "less government" you are going to see is for the banks and big corporations, letting them do whatever they want. Let them finally destroy "it all".  Not just monetarily, but enviromentally, and with more war.   Romney does not even keep his $250 million in his own country. And he wants to lower captial gains to 12% which is what he paid.  I don't know many people who just live off captial gains....Do you?  Of course not, we are the ones who bear the cross and the arrogance of those who literally will destroy it all, because they just want more and more and more. 

 

Yes we have to cut back one "some" social programs.  But Social Security was paid for by our money, our hard work and would be solvent if (starting with Reagan maybe back further).  THEY HAD NOT TOUCHED IT TO PAY DOWN DEFICITS. Or, given it to those who never even paid into it. We have to lower corporate taxes evening the playing field, but also cut out loopholes so companies like Exxon and GE cannot get away with paying "0" to their own country. Their are things that can be done and Obama has tried, but  NO, let's just keep th world in harm's way and call Obama a Socialist.  All so the Republicans can get control and give business whatever they want, lower their own taxes and stomp on everyone else.

 

I agree nancy Pelosi is a wacko, but then again so are Boeher and Cantor and McConnell. And it seems all of the GOP Congress these days.  The GOP has no answers. Oh yeah deregulate, deregulate and lower taxes on the "entitled", but increase taxes on those "they" consider "unentitled". and, let's not help by passing actions that could help, even things they themselves

recommended, let's just continue bringing us to the point of no return and call Obama a "Socialist", blame the scary, bad Obama. 

 

 

 

 

 

Jun 22, 2012 8:44AM
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Where are Jim, Tim, and Franklin now?

Just in case you might have wondered how their ineptitude affected their lives after they ruined so many dreams and lives....let me refresh your memory:

Where are Jim, Tim and Franklin now? Here's a quick look into the three former Fannie Mae executives who brought down Wall Street.


Franklin Raines - was a Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Fannie Mae. Raines was forced to retire from his position with Fannie Mae when auditing discovered severe irregularities in Fannie Mae's accounting activities. Raines left with a "golden parachute valued at $240 Million in benefits. The Government filed suit against Raines when the depth of the accounting scandal became clear.

Tim Howard - was the Chief Financial Officer of Fannie Mae. Howard "was a strong internal proponent of using accounting strategies that would ensure a "stable pattern of earnings" at Fannie. Investigations by federal regulators and the company's board of directors
since concluded that management did manipulate 1998 earnings to trigger bonuses. Raines and Howard resigned under pressure in late 2004. Howard's Golden Parachute was estimated at $20 Million!

Jim Johnson - A former executive at Lehman Brothers and who was later forced from his position as Fannie Mae CEO. Investigators found that Fannie Mae had hidden a substantial amount of Johnson's 1998 compensation from the public, reporting that it was between
$6 million and $7 million when it fact it was $21 million." Johnson is currently under investigation for taking illegal loans from Countrywide while serving as CEO of Fannie Mae. Johnson's Golden Parachute was estimated at $28 Million.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

FRANKLIN RAINES?

Raines works for the Obama Campaign as his Chief Economic Advisor.


TIM HOWARD?

Howard is a Chief Economic Advisor to Obama under Franklin Raines.


JIM JOHNSON?

Johnson was hired as a Senior Obama Finance Advisor and was selected to run Obama's Vice Presidential Search Committee.
Jun 22, 2012 8:41AM
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This is pretty amusing. A bank which is supposed to take deposits and loan a portion of those out to qualified borrowers with collateral can't even do that anymore without lsoing those deposits. A rating agency has to tell bondholders and investors which banks are crooks. They're all crooks.
Jun 22, 2012 7:12AM
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People with comic book mentalities have a tendency to become emotional and

lash out at those with policies they disagree with.The entitlement seeker's

becoming the most virile. Most all ignoring the facts.

Our country was doing well until 2006, when Nancy Pelosy took the throne

and said she was going to drain the swamp. Instead she drained the taxpayers,

and stiffled small business. Later she got reinforced with another Socialist for

president. THE American taxpayers in 2010 had enough and removed her from her

position. In November we need to remove the other Socialist from the White House.

 

Jun 22, 2012 6:29AM
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Gentlemen,

If you downgrade all the Moneycenter Banks, It is simply a recognition that they work in a more volatile sector; this ignores that they still have the basic regional strength that they started with, plus additional firepower outside their region.

I would find a Moneycenter Bank a stronger banking partner than a purely Regional Bank.  The latter lives or dies with the economy of the region.

On a political front, little States have formed the USA and continue to form the European Union. 

Let us give the small banks within these States, in the EU, the time to come together and unify their strengths.  It is a tragedy that they must do it under the gun of a failing World Economy, well before they have reached anything near peak effectiveness and power.

Having said that, our best fighters have become the best when the enemy, in this case Depression, has been fully focused upon them.  We have no choice but to give our leaders the leeway to do their best to overcome the obstacles that face us.  I know they will do so.

 

Paul C. Forbrich, JD

Jun 22, 2012 3:34AM
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It has nothing to do with god, God, or any type religion. If God wanted a few trillion dollars don’t you think he would just create it?  What if we gave these institutions the flying eagle finger and every real American yelled at the top of their lungs, "Rate this".  So the world’s financial institutions all collapse who cares?  The Government and the financial institutions, the ones we the citizens are trying to get control of?  We can survive all this from within our own boarders just like in the beginning of this great nation.  We will set the standards from within and we will help those that don’t meet these American standards pack and get out.  Are we that afraid and sheepish as citizens that we will not take control of this before it does become a total disaster?  Tell the world sorry “We The People” have declared bankruptcy and we owe you nothing, 0, zip, nada.  Whatever investments, cash, land or other securities you may have in our country has been seized by the American Bankruptcy Trustees on behalf of the people.  It will be liquidated to the American Public in English only.  After the liquidation process is completed and all outstanding debits are resolved to the American people.  Any cash or material funds or bartered items left in the coffers (if any) will be sent out in the mail to those world leaders that have truly found a new respect for America.  All bartered materials are FOB our locations you have thirty days to get them out or they will be considered forfeited and given back to the public.   Bankers and Wall Street junkies you have one week to either vacate the promises or come up with a real, solid working program for the prosperity of our Great Nation.  Remember all those politicians?  We will use the old lottery pork barrel method everyone’s name goes in.  We are going to tell one half of them they are fired and their paychecks will stop today, security will escort them out of the building.  Oh by the way there will be no severance package and sorry about your luck.  Are you starting to get the picture on how “We The People” can and will fix this problem.  After all isn’t that the way we started out in 1776?   
Jun 22, 2012 3:20AM
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Hope and change not working so good! He got me the first time, not this time!!!
Jun 22, 2012 3:07AM
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It still amzes me that people think the problem is political when
Jun 22, 2012 2:39AM
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If you sheeple would get off your soap boxes and look up some history, this all happend before in 1929. The greedy mother****ers on Wall Street and the Banksters were to blame. FDR put in the NEW DEAL and we had 50 YEARS of stability, FACT. NIXXON started to dismantle the regulations that were in place to keep this **** from happening again. RONNY RAYGUN and his VOODOO economics, and GEORGE BUSH, (and his coke sniffing, draft dodging son, the SHRUB)  finished the job and now your all ****ed.

You want it to get right? Re Install all the NEW DEAL regulations, adjusted for the times, get money out of politics, and get off your fat, gelatinous asses, and VOTE.

Jun 22, 2012 2:25AM
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The Banksters should be tarred, feathered and paraded around in public, then jailed

 

Jun 22, 2012 2:06AM
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And who downgrade Moody, I think they should be downgraded to Zero. They dont even think that what they do, can affect not only these banks but the whole world. As Trumpp always say, MOODY YOU'RE FIRED.
Jun 22, 2012 2:03AM
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This doesn't hurt the banks one bit. What do they care? Any increased costs they incur will just be passed on to the customer. That's why BP will never care about the Gulf oil spill. They're getting more than paid back in higher gas prices. The little guy always loses when it comes to big business. Always. -----BTW-. GOOGLE or BING【S_e_e_K_T-a_l_l.】 --the largest unique place for looking for Big  tall dating relationship or marriage Who are Over 5'8''. It brings together tall-dating minded singlēs from USA, UK, Canada, Australia, Europē and more..Wealthy a try. You will find your special one there
Jun 22, 2012 1:51AM
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Moody's Investor Service means nothing.

They only give opinions.
Jun 22, 2012 1:44AM
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I would say let us not confuse greed with politics.  Greed has no party, no religion and a lot of followers.  To a lot of people money is god before God!!  The more you have the more you want.  The banks and the bankers will find a way to drain our wallets. The more the governments regulates them the more they find ways to invade our hard earned money!   
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