The big question, of course, is China. And there I think investors can see the first steps toward a strong-enough policy reversal that it will put a bottom in on economic growth around the middle of 2012. Here's part of a timetable put together by Caixin Online:

● Oct. 25: The China Banking Regulation Commission published new policies for granting preferential loans to small companies and limits on service charges to small companies. China's smaller companies have been hit hard by the government's attempt to rein in bank lending.

● Oct. 29: Premier Wen Jiabao spoke of the need to fine-tune China's macroeconomic policies.

● Fourth quarter of 2011: The government looks to be planning to move from a slight budget surplus in the first nine months of 2011 to a slight deficit in the fourth quarter. The total deficit for the year would be only about $130 billion, but the switch from surplus to deficit would signal a move to stimulate the economy.

All this, in my opinion, puts China on track for a growth bottom near an 8% annual growth rate (down from the current 9.1%) in the middle of 2012 and then a gradual acceleration in growth.

That's roughly the picture that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sees as well: Growth in the world's 20 largest economies will slow to 3.8% in 2012 from 3.9% in 2011, before accelerating to 4.6% in 2013. (I've got my doubts about that 2013 part, but let's leave that for another day.)

So what investors are really looking at is a kind of growth desert in the first half of 2012, with growth slowing in both the developed and developing economies before picking up in the developing economies in the second half of 2012.

Stocks for this desert

Now on to the hard stuff -- where do you put your money? Four answers:

Dividend stocks: While we're waiting for the growth train to come in, getting paid a yield of 3.5% or more while we wait seems attractive. That was part of the logic behind my recent recommendation of DuPont (DD, news) (You can read it here.)

Developing-economy bank stocks: Bank stocks will be one of the first sectors to pick up as central banks in these countries cut interest rates, because that will increase the net interest spread for the banks and lower the risk of loan defaults. One to consider is Brazil's Itaú Unibanco (ITUB, news). I'd stay away from China's banks because of big, unrecognized, bad loan problems.

Developing-economy stocks that focus on the domestic economy: If developed-world export markets grow slowly or not at all, a majority of acceleration in developing-economy growth will come from domestic sales. I'd rather own a Baidu (BIDU, news) or a Ping An Insurance (PNGAY, news) in China or a Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes (GOL, news) in Brazil than an exporter such as Brazil's Vale (VALE, news).

Developed-market stocks with a big exposure to developing economies: China is the big growth market for Coach (COH, news), and the emerging markets are the big targets for a food company such as Nestlé (NSRGY, news).

(Coach and Gol Linhas are members my Jubak's Picks portfolio and Baidu and Itaú Unibanco are members of my long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio.)

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Any investing road map is subject to revisions. The main reason for this one is even-slower-than-expected growth in the world's developed economies over the next nine months. If the euro debt crisis has proved nothing else it is that investors should never underestimate the ability of politicians to muck things up.

At the time of publication, Jim Jubak did not own or control shares of any company mentioned in this column in his personal portfolio. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did own shares of Baidu, DuPont, Gol Linhas, Itaú Unibanco, Nestlé and Ping An as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June see the fund's portfolio here.

Jim Jubak's column has run on MSN Money since 1997. He is the author of the book "The Jubak Picks," based on his market-beating Jubak's Picks portfolio; the writer of the Jubak's Picks blog; and the senior markets editor at MoneyShow.com. Get a free 60-day trial subscription to JAM, his premium investment letter, by using this code: MSN60 when you register at the Jubak Asset Management website.

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